Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 15th, 2019 3:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

jeremy.mackenzie, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

The snowpack is not improving. This is not the time to venture into big terrain. Large natural avalanches continue to occur.

Summary

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Generally calm and sunny on Wednesday with Alpine temperatures near -6 Celsius. Light flurries are expected to move into the region late Wednesday or Thursday morning, but snow accumulations will not be significant.

Avalanche Summary

A few naturally triggered slabs in Alpine terrain on North, East and West aspects in the past 24 hours up to size 2.5. In addition, a couple of small solar triggered avalanches occurred on steep south-east and south aspects in the past 24 hours.

Snowpack Summary

Surface hoar was observed up to 2200m in sheltered locations. This may be a layer of concern in the future if it ever snows again. Moist snow was found on solar aspects in the Alpine and at Treeline by early afternoon today. Wind slabs are widespread at all elevations except for very sheltered areas below treeline. Compression Test results today at TL on an East aspect produced moderate shears down 100cm in the basal facets. The bottom half of the snowpack remains very weak and facetted.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Expect to find wind slabs at all elevations. The depth and sensitivity to triggering are highly variable across the forecast region.

If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

Any avalanche has the potential to trigger the basal facets, resulting in large avalanches.

Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to weak layers at the base of the snowpack.Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent slopes.Carefully evaluate and use caution around thin snowpack areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 3

Valid until: Jan 16th, 2019 2:00PM