Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 6th, 2017 3:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs, Loose Dry and Persistent Slabs.

jeremy.mackenzie, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

A large natural avalanche cycle is occurring. Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

The storm is coming to an end, and Tuesday will bring cloudy skies with sunny periods. Temperatures will remain cool with the temperature reaching a high of -19 °C. Wednesday should be a bit milder with more sun, and then a warm, windy and snowy day is expected on Thursday.

Avalanche Summary

Visibility was very limited today, but some natural avalanche activity was observed today in Alpine and Treeline terrain. One of the observed avalanches stepped down to the November persistent weak layer. We strongly suspect that a widespread avalanche cycle is occurring on all aspects and at all elevations.

Snowpack Summary

15 to 20cm of new snow in the past 24hrs brings storm snow totals to near 100cm at Treeline over the past 3 days. This storm snow sits on a previously formed dense wind slab in many parts of the forecast area. Widespread wind effect in Alpine and open areas at Treeline. Suspect significant wind slab development. Forecasters have a concern that the new load will cause failures in the deeply buried weak layers of Dec 18 and Nov 12, causing deep and destructive avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

With up to 100cm of snow at Treeline in the past 72 hours, storm slab avalanches are almost certain to occur.

Avoid all avalanche terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely - Certain

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Dry

Sluffing is occurring in steep terrain on all aspects and at all elevations.

Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.Sluffs may trigger deeper instabilities.Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain, particularly where the debris flows into terrain traps.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely - Certain

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Triggering of these slabs from a thin weak area may cause an avalanche that involves the entire snowpack. With the recent additional snow load, triggering of these deeper layers is now more likely.

Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 4

Valid until: Feb 7th, 2017 2:00PM