Some new snow is headed this way on Friday but until then... The weak base will be an issue all year. Patience is a virtue. Things will get better with more snow!
Summary
Confidence
High -
Weather Forecast
Not much changing. No new snow is expected over the next 24hrs with temperatures being warmer than average (-5C at 1800m). Winds will begin to increase out of the W later in the afternoon on wednesday into the moderate to strong range.
Avalanche Summary
1 new sz 2.5 natural avalanche on a W aspect above Rummel lake. The slab was seen from a distance so details are scant. It appeared to fail below a steep cliff band.
Snowpack Summary
Pockets of fresh wind slab are found at upper elevations in lee and cross-loaded terrain, but these slabs are not widespread in distribution. Forecasters continue to have low confidence in the snowpack with 50 to 60cm of medium to high density snow overlying a very weak base of up to 50cm of facets. This is the perfect combination for avalanches. Despite a lack of recent naturally triggered avalanches, there is strong potential for human triggering with the current snowpack structure. Unfortunately, this state of affairs will be with us for some time to come.