Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Monday: Expect mixed skies with flurries building later in the day. Accumulations could be higher over the western slopes/west facing terrain. West winds with temperatures reaching -7. Tuesday &Wednesday: We should see a lull in the precip in the morning and then flurries through the afternoon, evening and into Wednesday. Freezing levels will slowly rise from 1000-2000m under continued westerly winds.

There are reports of natural, human and remote triggered avalanches up to size 1.5. While previous avalanches were confined to the northern part of the region, these new reports are from further south. The focus is on elevations between 1500-2100m. While small, these new avalanches suggest that the tipping point for activity on the early December surface hoar is slowly arriving, and the problem is likely to get worse as more snow falls.

As much as 20cm of new snow has fallen in the most recent storm pulse. This overlies soft slabs on North through East aspects and some spotty, small surface hoar/surface facets in sheltered locations at treeline and below. This brings the total load over the early December surface hoar to 35cm in the South and 65cm in the North. This surface hoar layer is still producing sudden results in stability tests and a whole block rutchblock 4 was also observed. This is certainly the layer to watch; check out the forecaster blog for more info/ideas on this current problem. The midpack is well consolidated and strong.