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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2017–Mar 16th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Conditions vary throughout the region. Precipitation amounts and the freezing level have been higher overall south of Valemount. Ratings reflect conditions in the south of the region.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries / Moderate southwest wind southwest / Alpine temperature -6 / Freezing level: 1100mFRIDAY: Flurries, accumulation 5cm / Moderate south wind / Alpine temperature -8 / Freezing level 1200mSATURDAY: Flurries, accumulation 10-15cm / Moderate to strong southwest wind / Alpine temperature -4 / Freezing level 1500mMore details can be found on theMountain Weather Forecast.

Avalanche Summary

It is expected that there was a widespread natural avalanche cycle over the past 3 days in the areas south of Valemount with warm temperatures and rain up to 2000m. Warming temperatures on Monday afternoon destabilized the snowpack, resulting in a widespread natural avalanche cycle below treeline. A widespread natural avalanche cycle to Size 2.5 was reported below treeline on Monday afternoon.

Snowpack Summary

In the south of the region, surface snow up to 2000m is moist or wet. There has been 5-15cm of fresh snow with moderate to strong southerly winds each of the past several days creating storm slabs and wind slabs tree line and above. This recent new snow sits on faceted snow, thin sun crust on steep southerly aspects, as well as surface hoar in sheltered areas in some parts of the region. Approximately 80-120 cm below the surface you may find the mid-February persistent weakness. Professionals in the region have warned that the load above this layer has reached a critical amount, particularly where it presents as a crust. Deep persistent weaknesses in the lower third of the snowpack still have the potential to react to human triggers or smaller slab avalanches, especially with the warming air temperatures and/or intense sunshine.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.