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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2015–Jan 17th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

New snow will bond poorly to widespread surface hoar layer. Expect sluffing in steep terrain. December 17 persistent slab is still the number 1 concern.

Weather Forecast

Isolated flurries continue today with up to 4cm of accumulation with light SW winds gusting to moderate. Alpine temperatures are expected to remain around -5.  A slight ridge builds in on Saturday giving a break in precipitation before the arrival of a moisture-laden warm front on Sunday morning with up to 20cm of accumulation throughout the day.

Snowpack Summary

10cm of new snow sits on top of the widespread January 15 surface hoar layer.  On steep solar aspects, this layer is combined with a 2-3cm crust. A cohesive slab sits on top of the Dec 17 surface hoar layer (down 70-110cm). The Dec 17 surface hoar sits on a crust complex that still shows weakness in stability tests. Well settled lower pack.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed yesterday.

Confidence

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.