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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 15th, 2014–Apr 16th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Avalanche danger can rise very quickly with warming and solar radiation. Be aware of changing conditions and overhead hazards.For more insight into spring danger ratings, check out our latest Blog Post. 

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Thursday

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Mainly overcast with flurries. Winds light south. Freezing level 1800m.Thursday: Light snowfall. Winds moderate south. Freezing level 1800m.Friday: Cloudy with sunny periods and scattered flurries. Moderate west winds. Freezing level 1300m.

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports indicate numerous natural avalanches running to size 2.5 on southerly aspects in the alpine. A size 3 natural cornice triggered avalanche was also reported from a east aspect in the alpine on Sunday.

Snowpack Summary

Mainly sunny weather and the freezing level reaching up to 2300m over the weekend has created moist snow and/or a crust on all aspects and elevations except for high elevation north-facing terrain. Three persistent weak layers exist in the highly variable snowpack of the Cariboo region:-The mid-March sun crust/surface hoar layer down 50-80cm still has potential for human-triggering in isolated areas. -The early-March crust/facet/surface hoar layer down around 80-120cm has become less susceptible to human triggering, but still has the capacity to produce large avalanches.-The mid-February crust/facet/surface hoar combo is typically down 150 - 200cm. Direct triggering of this layer has become unlikely, however, cornice fall, a smaller avalanche in motion or prolonged warming may wake this layer up, which would result in very large and destructive avalanches.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.