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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 10th, 2016–Mar 11th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

The persistent slab on solar aspects woke up this morning. A natural avalanche cycle was observed on popular runs, like Avalanche Crest and NRC Gully.

Weather Forecast

A cold front will pass through the area today, bringing another 10-15cm of snow along with gusting moderate to strong SW winds. Freezing levels may rise to 1600m. Tonight, unsettled conditions continue, with gusting SW winds, 5cm of snow, and dropping freezing levels. Friday will be mainly cloudy with flurries.

Snowpack Summary

Windslabs on S through W aspects are touchy, as they overlie surface hoar sitting on a thick sun crust, the Feb 27 layer. Snowpack test results yesterday at Lookout Col showed these slabs were ripe to trigger and propagate on a SW aspect, while a pit on the NE aspect had stubborn results.

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle is currently underway, with numerous sz 2-3's from W-SW aspects on Avalanche Crest and NRC Gully. A large sz 3.5 from a SW aspect on Mt Smart was observed yesterday, propagating several hundred metres wide and scrubbing down to vegetation. Also, a cornice failure in Cheops North yesterday, with debris in the valley.

Confidence

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.