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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 21st, 2013–Jan 22nd, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Be increasingly cautious with daytime heating on solar aspects.

Weather Forecast

High pressure ridge bringing mild temperatures and mostly clear skies with a strong temperature inversion today. This ridge is expected to last until Tuesday evening.

Snowpack Summary

Upper 25cm is settled snow, with variable wind affect above tree line. The mid pack is well settled. A profile in the Hermit area, 2270m, SE aspect, 28deg, showed a 187cm snowpack with moderate to hard test results, resistant planar down 18, 24 and 48cm. The January 4th surface layer was down 48cm and the November 6 crust was down 140cm.

Avalanche Summary

3 natural loose size 2.0 avalanches from solar radiation east of Rogers Pass summit1 natural slab size 1.5, suspect on Jan 4th layer in Hermit area.

Confidence

on Monday

Problems

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.