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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2018–Feb 16th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

It is still a recommendation to avoid overhead exposure. Recent avalanche activity suggests the snowpack is still fragile.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

It will be cloudy overnight with temps dipping to -18C. Tomorrow, we're expecting another 6cm with wind. The average wind speed will be 25km/hr and gusts up to 50km/hr and out of the west. The temps will climb to -12C.

Avalanche Summary

Several new avalanches were noted today. Their exact age is hard to predict, but we think they occurred during yesterday's wind event. These were in very steep, unsupported treeline terrain mostly. This indicates that the snowpack is still adjusting to the new loading.

Snowpack Summary

Our heavy snowfall warning fizzled out and only left 5cm behind. For the moment, this snow remains untouched by the winds. Expect that to change as the winds pick up this evening. The alpine is widespread windslabs or exposed gravel ridges. Treeline has a widespread windslab that is stiff and poorly bonded to the layer underneath. This slab is only 5-10cm thick so it doesn't present a huge  problem, unless a terrain trap is involved. A treeline profile today had the Jan 6th layer down 110cm and the dec 15 layer down 130cm. Neither layer reacted in tests at this location. This suggests the snowpack is "healing", but we'd like to look at more sites before saying the snowpack is improving.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.