Avalanche forecast

Provo

Issued Jan 3, 2020valid to Jan 4, 2020Utah Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger

Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline

Out of date — this forecast expired 7 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on all aspects at the upper elevations, and at mid-elevations on aspects facing northwest, through northeast, and southeast where human-triggered avalanches are likely on steeper, wind-drifted slopes. Avalanches on wind-drifted slopes may be triggered from below or on adjacent slopes. The avalanche hazard is Moderate on mid-elevation aspects facing south through west, and all low elevation aspects.

Avalanche problems

Wind Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Likely
Size
2
Westerly winds the past several days continue to drift snow onto many mid and upper elevation slopes. Although you can expect to find fresh wind drifts on leeward aspects generally facing east, the wind can work through terrain and cross-load a slope on any aspect. The three remotely-triggered slides on Thursday are an indication these wind drifts will continue to be reactive today. Avoid wind-drifted slopes as avalanches can be triggered from below or on an adjacent slope. Watch for clues of wind loading such as cracking and wind-drifted pillows.

Although most observations indicate that avalanching will generally require a wind-loaded slope, the recent storm snow fell onto a weak, pre-existing snow surface, and sensitive shallow storm slabs 6-10" thick may be possible on steeper slopes. Signs to watch for include cracking and collapsing.
Persistent Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
3
This layer has been mostly dormant and has been gaining strength, but it is not forgotten. This New Years storm which included strong winds and snowfall with over 2" of water weight in some areas is a good test for the stability of this weak layer. It is possible this load may stress the snowpack in some areas, and that avalanches may step down into this persistent weak layer down near the ground. This weak snow can be found at the mid and upper elevations, on aspects facing northwest, through north, and east.

Avalanching on this layer is most likely on repeater avalanche paths, generally shallower snowpacks, and in steep thin rocky terrain.

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New to the backcountry or in need of a refresher? Consider taking a companion rescue course offered at Woodward Park City, January 14, 5:30-9 p.m.

Recent Activity

There were no reports from the Provo mountains on Thursday. Further north in the Salt Lake mountains, three remotely-triggered slides were reported from the backcountry on Thursday:

- Butler Fork 9300' N aspect 12" deep 30' wide running an estimated 150-200' (observation)

- Tuscarora 10,400 SE aspect 14" deep 40' wide (observation)

- Little Water Peak 9300' SE aspect 12-16" deep 60' wide running 250' vertical [photo below] (observation)

These avalanches were on wind-loaded slopes, failing at the new snow/old snow interface. It is likely similar conditions exist in the Provo backcountry.

Snow and Weather

Currently, temperatures in the Provo mountains are in the lower 20's F. Winds are out of the west/northwest and wind speeds are very elevation-dependent. At 11,000' winds are averaging in the 30's mph, with gusts in the 40's and 50's mph. But drop elevation and wind speeds diminish, averaging in the teens with gusts in the 20's mph.

Reports from the Provo mountains are generally 8" of snow from the New Years storm, although totals are likely much higher than that at the upper elevations.

For today, expect partly cloudy skies with gradual clearing as high pressure briefly moves into our region. Temperatures will warm into the 20's and low 30's F. Winds will be out of the northwest remain strongest at the upper elevations, gusting into the 40's mph at 11,000'. Drop elevation and wind speeds will be much more moderate, with exposed ridges averaging in the teens with gusts in the 20's mph.

Although Salt lake-centric, our Week In Review which summarizes the weather and avalanche activity for this past week has been published.

General Announcements

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

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