Conditions will change rapidly as we enter the weekend. Watch for sluffing from steep terrain at all elevations and for signs of early wind slab development in the alpine.
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
The first wave of precipitation is expected to reach the interior late Thursday night or early Friday morning. 5-15cm of new snow is expected for Friday. Freezing levels are expected to be 1200-1500m and alpine winds moderate to strong from the SW. A weak ridge will keep Friday night and Saturday morning mainly dry before the next storm front arrives on Saturday afternoon or evening. Freezing levels on Saturday will rise to around 1500m or so and alpine winds will increase to strong from the SW. Saturday night and Sunday should yield another 15-30cm of snowfall up high. Freezing levels on Sunday may rise as high as 2000m and winds will remain strong.
Avalanche Summary
On Thursday, explosive control at a ski area produce several size 1 slabs on steep NE slopes in the alpine. These slabs were around 20cm thick and were snow that reloaded slopes that had previously avalanched. The bed surface was the early November rain crust/facets which remain an active concern in the region.
Snowpack Summary
The new snow sits on a layer of large surface hoar. Up to around 2200m elevation this surface hoar sits on a hard rain crust. Above 2200m the surface hoar sits on well settled and faceted snow. As wind increases with the progression of the storm, wind slabs are expected to form in leeward features. A thick rain crust with facets from early November is buried over 1 m down and may still be reactive in isolated areas. A weak layer from the end of November sits in the middle of the snowpack and may still be reactive in some areas.
Problems
Loose Dry
Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.