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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 5th, 2016–Apr 6th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Purcells.

Danger could rise quickly if the sun makes an appearance in the afternoon. Keep an eye on the surface condition. If the snow is becoming moist or wet, plan on a more conservative approach.

Confidence

Moderate

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with light snow to start (5 cm), and possible sunny breaks in the afternoon. The freezing starts around 1800 m and climbs to 2300-2400 m late in the day. Winds are moderate to strong from the West. THURSDAY: Mainly sunny. The freezing level shoots up to 3400 m. Winds should ease to light and variable. FRIDAY: Mainly sunny. The freezing level stays above 3000 m and winds should remain light.

Avalanche Summary

One size 2.5 slab avalanche was observed near Golden on Monday. This wet slab was accidentally triggered by skiers late on Sunday on a sun-exposed alpine slope. Cloud and slightly cooler temperatures put a hold on natural avalanche activity on Monday and Tuesday. However, this could be a brief respite before warmth and sunshine (and subsequent avalanche activity) return later in the week.

Snowpack Summary

A dusting of new snow sits on a fairly solid crust at all elevations and on all aspects. The exception to this could be high north-facing slopes where cold dry snow might still exist. Forecast snow and wind on Wednesday could combine to create fresh pockets of wind slab in lee alpine terrain. The March 22nd rain crust is 30-40 cm deep and is present to around 2000 m. The late February persistent weak layer is now down 40-100 cm below the surface. Both of these persistent weaknesses could wake up again as temperatures soar and the sun returns later this week.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.