Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Use caution if you find mushy, wet snow on steep slopes with daytime warming. Wet loose slides could gouge into deeper, wet snow on very steep slopes and become larger avalanches. Watch for glide cracks as you travel, glide avalanches may release sporadically where the snowpack rests over rock slab or grassy slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Very mild, above-freezing temperatures are forecast to continue at upper elevations, so expect you could trigger wet avalanches with daytime warming. Check the thickness and supportability of the surface crust as the day progresses. If you're sinking past your ankle boot top with skis on, you could trigger a wet loose avalanche on steep slopes. These slides could be larger at mid-elevations where they could gouge into weaker, wet snow. You can use quick, informal tests to check how easily the snow slides or entrains before committing to larger, steep slopes. Use extra caution on very steep slopes with exposed rocks, or where the snowpack may be shallower. 

    Glide avalanches present a low likelihood, but high consequence scenario. Observers have noted a handful of glide cracks opening up within the zone (see photo below). These may sporadically release over the next few days. Your best travel technique is to avoid potential runout zones of any features with glide cracks above. You may find areas of weak, wet, and unsupportive snow at low elevations and around trees or rocks. These areas could present a travel hazard of falling into holes and could result in a host of wet avalanches. 

    Avalanche danger is generally low aside from slopes that are affected by prolonged sun exposure and without glide cracks.

    (1/22/2022)

    Small wet loose avalanche off steep south facing terrain on Lichtenberg Mtn.

    Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

Observers on Sunday noted very warm temperatures on the pass with rollerballs even on slopes in the shade at lower elevations.  Glide cracks continue to slowly open, such as the one above Wellington (see photo below). Cold, dry snow can still be found over a stout crust on higher elevation, north facing slopes. The inversion broke during the day, and temperatures at pass level warmed up into the 40's. At higher elevations they reached into the 50's. On Saturday, observers reported a handful of wet avalanches on steep sunny slopes. A couple of notable slides on the southeast face of Lichtenberg Mtn were big enough to bury a person and may have gouged into older layers of snow.  

This prolonged period of warm temperatures and sun has us worried about the potential for unexpected avalanches. That said, the snowpack has seen significant wetting from multiple rain events and sun in the past 10 days. This combined with the short days and weak January sun is keeping the snowpack from falling apart like it might in March with similar temperatures. We'll continue to track stability through this warm period by monitoring how wet the snowpack is getting and how much crusts in the upper snowpack are melting and breaking down. 

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