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Avalanche danger
Highlights
Expect generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for small, isolated wind drifts in upper elevation terrain. A hard overnight freeze and cooler temps today should prevent most wet snow avalanches.
Our last daily Backcountry Avalanche Forecast will be tomorrow, April 11th.
Avalanche Discussion
The snowpack is generally stable, and our avalanche forecast season seems to be going out with a whimper. As usual, LOW danger doesn't mean no danger and there are a few things to keep an eye out for:
- A professional observer in the Sawtooths reported sensitive, dinner-table-sized wind slabs breaking a few inches thick. These are unlikely to be a significant problem unless you are skiing or riding in exposed or consequential terrain. There is very little snow available to be transported, but today's increasing winds could form isolated wind slabs in upper elevation and especially alpine terrain.
- Hard overnight freezes and cooler daytime temperatures have locked up the wet snowpack we had earlier in the week. Frozen surfaces softened yesterday, but not enough to create wet snow problems. That will likely be the case again today. If you're planning to go for corn, the thaw may be delayed today by slightly cooler temps and wind.
Be sure to catch up on the final week of the forecast season in Ethan's latest Weekend Update. And join Chris for the last Digging Deeper of the season this Wednesday, April 14th, titled Forecasts Have Ended – Now What?
WINTER 2020-21 HIGHLIGHTs (AND LOWLIGHTS)
I don't know about you, but towards the end of the season, the winter always feels like a blur. As we wrap up with LOW danger, it's easy to forget that the first 2/3 of the winter was exceptionally unstable. Here's a quick recap of what happened:
- Storms prior to Thanksgiving put down a solid base of early season snow—we thought it was going to be a record-setting La Niña season!
- But wait—not so fast! These storms were followed by 3 weeks of drought conditions and cold temperatures, creating an especially weak and widespread persistent facet layer which was finally buried on December 11.
- Nearly every subsequent loading event produced avalanche activity on this facet layer. The most significant avalanche cycle occurred after a late-January storm dropped 3-4' of new snow in the mountains (and in Ketchum!).
- Newer weak layers that formed in mid-January came into play during the late-January storm, especially in our northern mountains. One of these layers was responsible for a tragic avalanche fatality in Smiley Creek on February 19th.
- It was an exceptionally unstable year—the danger was CONSIDERABLE or higher on 64 days. That's over half of the 120 avalanche forecasts we issued this season! We recorded over 230 avalanches that were large enough to bury or injure a person (D2 on the size scale). Of these, 19 were human-triggered—and most were released remotely from lower-angled terrain.
- What had already been below-average snowfall shut off at the end of February. March was extremely dry—our mountains picked up less than 18" of new snow during the entire month. Only a few inches have fallen so far in April.
- Due to the lack of loading, the danger dropped to LOW on March 7th. It's been LOW to MODERATE (one day of CONSIDERABLE) since then, with wet loose and wind slabs being the main problems.
- La Niña ended up being La None-ya! We're wrapping up our forecast season with a snowpack that's 65-80% of normal.
PLEASE HELP US HELP YOU: We want to learn more about how you use the Forecast and our products. Kelly Rice-McNeil (Eastern Oregon University) and Victor McNeil (Wallowa Avalanche Center) are spearheading a project to understand how you use avalanche center products and, ultimately, to improve them. Help us help you by taking 10 minutes or so to fill out a survey. Teaser: there is a little SAC-specific questioning involved—please participate and get your backcountry partners, friends, family, and clients involved! Google Forms link: https://forms.gle/YwgEwHRnT4ucSF226