Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

It's becoming harder to trigger an avalanche, but faceted weak layers deeper down in the snowpack continue to persist. Large and destructive human-triggered persistent slab avalanches remain possible today at all elevations.  Avoid steep wind drifted slopes giving avalanche paths wide berths as you still may be able to trigger an avalanche well above you. Obvious signs of instability like collapsing and shooting cracks most likely will not be present in travels. Avoid likely trigger points near rock outcrops and on the margins of the slab as these are places you're most likely to impact deeper weak layers triggering an avalanche.  Lower angle wind-sheltered slopes will provide safer and better skiing and riding.    

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

     

    Faceted weak layers continue to persist in the snowpack from faceted crusts to basal facets closer to the ground.  In shallower snowpacks (less than 2 m) these weak layers have been slow to heal and strengthen.  Wind drifted and loaded slopes near and above treeline on North through East will be most suspect and where avalanches will be bigger.  Below treeline, the snowpack continues to be weak and shallow with settling stiffening slabs resting over facets and depth hoar. Triggering an avalanche at this elevation band would still have high consequences if it swept you over a cliff or into a terrain trap.  

    These persistent weak layers are deeper down in the snowpack and will not be obvious to you from the surface as conditions will feel good underfoot in travels. Avoid likely trigger points, near rock outcrops, steep convex rolls and on the margins of the slab. Obvious signs of instability like shooting cracks and loud audible collapses may not be present in travels and lure you into steeper terrain.  Using a probe pole to feel for strong over weak layering or taking the time to dig down into the snowpack is a great way to assess if this poor snowpack structure exists.    Any persistent slab avalanche would be large and dangerous potentially taking with it most of the season's snowpack.  Giving avalanche paths wide berths and avoiding be on or connected to slopes over 35 degrees is a great way to stay safe. 

    Slabs from January and February snowstorms rest on top of weak faceted snow deeper down in the snowpack.

Avalanche Discussion

The strong winds over the last several days have been felt at all elevations with drifting snow, stiffening slabs, and other slopes being stripped and eroded in some cases back to bare ground.  Thankfully the winds will be on the decrease today as a moisture-starved system pushes into northern NM this afternoon bringing a couple of inches of snowfall this afternoon into the evening. Over the last two days on the leeward sides of ridgelines and in cross-loaded terrain, shallow, stiffening wind slabs have formed.  Look for obvious wind-loaded slopes that may look smooth in appearance. At higher elevations, these slabs will be supportable and may feel hollow or drummy. These shallow wind slabs might take you off your feet, but the main concern is if a smaller wind slab steps down into the faceted weak layers deeper down in the snowpack creating a larger more dangerous avalanche.    

It's tricky conditions right now, with a degree of uncertainty that leads us to this lower likelihood of triggering an avalanche but the consequences still remain high if you were to trigger one.  A large natural persistent slab avalanche from last weekend serves as a good reminder of what the consequences could be right now, with avalanches failing on or near the ground taking with it most of the season's snowpack. What leads to this uncertainty is how variable the snowpack is slope to slope or even across a slab in an avalanche path. You can dig a snowpit on a slope and find a 3-meter snowpack with difficult to impact weak layers, but 100' away the snowpack is only 140 cm with thinner slabs and weak layers lingering just below.  It's finding these likely trigger points that you're most likely to get a slope to avalanche. This means it may not be the first or fifth person on a slope to get it to fail, it may just be hitting a "sweet spot" where you find the right slab/weak layer combination.  If you are stepping out into steeper terrain, realize it will come with a level of uncertainty and immediate feedback won't happen until it's too late.   

 

Strong winds, warm temperatures, and our intense sun this time of year have created variable riding conditions on many slopes. You can still find great skiing and riding on north-facing wind-sheltered slopes. 

 

Regions covered