Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Shifting winds have created fresh, unstable drifts on all aspects above treeline and the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on slopes steeper than 30 degrees that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow. On steep slopes facing NW-NE-SE near and above treeline fresh drifts have added stress to buried persistent weak layers and deep and deep and dangerous human-triggered avalanches up to 4' deep are likely. The avalanche danger is MODERATE on most south-facing slopes near treeline and below and human-triggered avalanches remain possible.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    More than 2' of snow has fallen since last weekend adding significant stress to buried persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow. On steep slopes facing NW-N-SE, deep and dangerous human triggered avalanches 2'-4' deep remain likely. Weak layers of faceted snow exist on all aspects and the recent snow load has heightened concerns on south facing slopes. Persistent weak layer problems are deceptive and avoidance of avalanche terrain, or slopes steeper than about 30 degrees is the only sure bet.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    Wind drifted snow has bumped up the avalanche danger as fresh drifts have formed on all aspects, primarily in upper elevation, wind-exposed terrain. Fresh wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. On northerly aspects, fresh drifts will additional stress to buried persistent weak layers, and once triggered they will likely produce deeper and even more dangerous avalanches. Avoid steep slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow.

Special Announcement

The Geyser Pass Road was plowed on Tuesday, but 3"-5" of new snow has fallen since then. 4x4 with good tires is recommended.

The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance (LUNA) last packed and rolled the lower meadow through Gold Basin on Thursday.

Recent Activity

It's been a week since any natural avalanche activity has occurred. Natural activity from last weekend's storm was surprisingly low. With the current poor snowpack structure, this means many steep slopes are hanging in balance just waiting for a human trigger.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow 2" 72 Hour Snow 2" Base Depth in Gold Basin 50" Wind NW 20-25 Temp 21F

We managed to wring a couple of inches of new snow out of yesterday's brush by. Moderate SW winds yesterday shifted to NW last night where they blew in the 20-30 mph range with gusts as high as 45 mph. They've backed off a bit this morning. Today look for sunny skies, decreasing NW winds, and high temps near 20F at 10,000'. Conditions will remain dry through Tues with a slight chance of snow on Wed. Models are now hinting at a possible return to a more active pattern for the desert southwest by the weekend. We'll keep you posted.

NWS Weather Forecast.

Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')

Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')

Snowpack Discussion

It's been a great week of powder skiing and riding. On Friday however, the strong sun and warm temperatures moistened the snow surface on south aspects and they are now crusted over. Shifting winds in the high country have also affected exposed surfaces. Seek low angle, sheltered, north-facing slopes for the best and safest conditions. Storms from last week added a significant load to our weak snowpack, and persistent weak layers of sugary faceted snow can now be found on most aspects. Wind-loaded, northerly-facing slopes remain the most likely areas to trigger deep, and dangerous avalanches, but you can also trigger avalanches on more southerly aspects. Avoidance of avalanche terrain or slopes steeper than about 30 degrees is the only sure strategy right now.

Additional Info

Chris Benson has compiled the following data for the period between Feb 3 - 17. Note the single greatest loading event of the season with more than 15" of snow 1.5" Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) in a 12 hour period on Feb 13.

General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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