A MODERATE avalanchedanger exists on steep slopes that face NW through E where a dense slab 2'-3' thick exists on top of a persistent weak layer of sugary faceted snow. Human triggered avalanches are possible in these areas. The danger increases with elevation where deposits of wind drifted snow have added additional stress to the underlying, weak snowpack structure. Managing steep terrain with this kind of snowpack is tricky, and for my part I'm going to continue to avoid steep, northerly facing slopes for awhile.
Most low elevation and south facing terrain has a generally LOW danger.
It's also still very low tide out there. Beware of rocks, stumps, and deadfall lurking beneath the surface.
A dense, cohesive slab exists on a persistent weak layer of loose, sugary facets that formed in the October snow. Any avalanche triggered on this layer would be 2' deep or more, and would be very dangerous. It's early season, and with a snowpack structure consisting of a slab on top of an obvious persistent weak layer, I'm going to continue to avoid steep, northerly facing slopes for the time being.
Road Conditions: The road is snowpacked and slick and AWD vehicles with good tires are recommended.
Grooming: LUNA (Lower Utah Nordic Alliance) groomed all trails on Monday. Follow them on Instagram @luna_moab. Thanks Matt!
No new avalanches have been reported since last week's storm event. Here is the current avalanche list.
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 22" Wind SW 5-15 Temp 24F
Mostly sunny skies and light southerly winds continue today while an active weather pattern develops off the west coast. Though the approaching system has the potential for big snow amounts in northern Utah, it doesn't look nearly as impressive for our region. We'll see increasing clouds on Thursday with possibly a few afternoon snow showers as a Pacific low-pressure trough drops south along the coast and moves inland. Our best chance for snow from this event comes Thursday night into Friday. 6" of snow seems a fair bet at this time. The pattern remains active however, and we'll see another chance for snow over Christmas with unsettled weather continuing into early next week.
Overall snow cover remains quite thin but the 20" of dense snow we received way back on December 10, has built a nice, supportable cushion that belies how shallow the snowpack really is. This dense snow has also built a slab on top of weak, sugary, facets that formed in the mid-October snow. This weak layer has grown less reactive over time, and outward signs of instability such as cracking and whumphing have been steadily decreasing. Nevertheless, a poor snowpack structure still exists, and in my mind is still very suspect. It's early season, the snowpack is still very shallow, and a ride in an avalanche would be devastating. Consider this, and choose terrain wisely.
Weather Links
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
NWS Weather Forecast
And for you snow geeks out there. Check out this snowpit from Travis Nauman. Picture it as building blocks as it illustrates hard or denser layers over weak layers. The further a layer is shown stretching out to the left, the harder it is. The weak layer of concern is between 35-40 cms. Thanks Travis!
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
