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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 29th, 2013–Jan 30th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: High pressure moves into the region gradually pushing out the low. Light snowfall amounts accompanied by Westerly ridgetop winds near 45km/hr. Alpine temperatures near -6.0 and freezing levels around 600 m. Thursday: Upper trough embedded in the flow causing unsettled conditions. Snow amounts 5-10 cm accompanied by moderate ridgetop winds from the SW. Alpine temperatures near -5.0 and freezing levels rise to 900 m.Friday: Unsettled conditions continue. Snow amounts 10 cm with ridgetop winds light from the SW. Alpine temperatures -3.0 and freezing levels staying near 900 m.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity occurred on higher elevation wind loaded slopes up to size 2.0. Loose snow avalanches were also reported running in the storm snow treeline and below elevations.

Snowpack Summary

The region has received close to a meter of recent storm snow. This new snow has been building storm and wind slabs over a variety of old snow surfaces (old wind slabs, melt-freeze crusts, surface hoar and scoured slopes). Much of the recent snow is being drifted into big wind slabs by strong NW wind.  Reports generally indicate that the bulk of this storm snow seems to be settling quickly, which is a good. However, with a continued stormy pattern I would wait out the storms and watch how the snowpack adapts  to the rapid changes.Lingering beneath the new snow sits two persistent weaknesses comprising of surface hoar/ facets and a melt-freeze crust. I suggest you keep these on your radar in regards to reactivity and sensitivity with the additional loading pattern. If reactive, with up to a meter of new snow regionally,  these buried weaknesses may be susceptible to producing large avalanches. The mid and lower snowpack is generally well settled and strong, although basal facets remain a concern in the northern part of the region.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.