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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 14th, 2012–Apr 15th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Below Threshold.
Treeline
Below Threshold.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.
Alpine
Below Threshold.
Treeline
Below Threshold.
Below Treeline
Below Threshold.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The region will see a mix of sun and cloud on Sunday with light to moderate southwesterly winds and freezing levels at about 1600m. Monday will see light precipitation with generally overcast skies on Tuesday. Winds will be light to moderate /southerly on Monday, switching to light/variable by Tuesday. Freezing levels are expected to remain at 1900m on Monday dropping to 1300m by Tuesday.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported from this region.

Snowpack Summary

We have had very little information about the snowpack in this region for several days now. However, I suspect the light snowfall with light winds at higher elevations have created a fairly consistent covering over a variety of old surfaces. These surfaces include well settled powder on steep north-facing slopes, and temperature-affected snow on solar aspects up high and on all aspects at lower elevations. Below the snow line I suspect light rain has been penetrating and weakening already wet snow. As we head deeper into spring, expect potentially potent, yet relatively short-lived, instabilities with each storm. Melt-freeze cycles are the most likely conditions you'll encounter. If temperatures go below freezing, moist or wet snow surfaces may develop crusts that will strengthen the snowpack. During periods of warming, rain or direct solar radiation, crusts will break down and pushy and destructive wet slabs and wet loose snow avalanches will become a real possibility. In short, warming is the most likely condition that will create an increased avalanche danger at this time of year, especially if there is a minimal amount of overnight freeze. Expect cornices to be large and potentially unstable, especially under sunny skies.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.