Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Tuesday

Tuesday: 12-18cm of new snow / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 1000mWednesday: 15-20cm of new snow / Moderate southerly winds / Freezing level at 1200mThursday: 3-5cm of new snow / Moderate southerly winds / Freezing level at 800m

There have been no new reports of avalanche activity, but that may speak more to a lack of observations rather than actual conditions. On Sunday, an impressive natural storm slab avalanche cycle is expected to have occurred particularly in the northwest side of the region where snowfall and wind were most intense. Looking forward, forecast snow and wind will promote ongoing storm slab avalanche activity, especially in higher elevation, lee terrain.

By Monday morning the 48 hour snowfall totals were around 60cm in the Duffey/ Tenquille areas. Thanks to strong to extreme southwest winds, I would anticipate redistribution of the recent storm snow at all elevation bands with storm slabs lurking in lee and cross-loaded features. Further south in Coquihalla area, 48 hour storm totals were closer to 35 cm and winds were much lighter.50-120cm below the surface you'll likely find a few crusts that were buried during the first few weeks of January. Due to limited observations, not much is known about the current reactivity of these layers.The lower snowpack includes the mid-December crust layer. I'd expect an improving bond at this interface; however, the load of the new snow may tip the balance and reactivate this layer in isolated terrain - particularly in the north of the region where it's shown prolonged reactivity in snowpack tests.