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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2018–Jan 14th, 2018

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

Temperatures of up to 10C are expected. This will destabilize surface snow and could also release storm slab avalanches at higher elevations.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Sunday: Warm, dry and sunny. Freezing level rising to 3500m. Temperature at 1400m expected to reach 10C. Light winds.Monday: Slightly cooler temperatures, but still a warm day. Freezing level around 2500m. Temperature at 1400m around 5C. Cloud building through the day with rain starting in the afternoon or evening.Tuesday: Rain. Amounts: 20-30mm. Freezing level 2300m. Strong southeasterly winds.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday we received a fantastic MIN report of a size 1.5 skier-triggered wind slab in the alpine. You can see it here. This report is still relevant for elevations above 1300 m and shows just how different the conditions are between the North Shore and the Squamish area. On Friday, we received reports of new storm snow failing on older loose, dry storm snow on a crust. The avalanches were relatively small, but were failing in surprisingly low angle terrain and entraining significant mass.

Snowpack Summary

Rain has soaked into the snow at elevations below 1300 m. Only the peaks of the North Shore mountains and higher terrain near Squamish escaped the rain. At these upper elevations, the newly developed storm slab may be surprisingly touchy as there is a possibility that cold snow became trapped below the more recent dense slab. At lower elevations, a moist snow surface is likely that may become reactive to loose wet avalanche activity. About 60cm below the surface you'll find a thick melt-freeze crust that formed as a result of heavy rain about a week ago. The bond at this interface will likely gain strength over time; however, professionals are monitoring this layer as it has the potential to produce large avalanches in isolated terrain.The snowpack depth at 1000 m is about 150 cm and many early season hazards are still present.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.