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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 30th, 2018–Jan 31st, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

We are in a waiting game now. The new snow load is creeping up. Eventually the scales will tip and the deeper layers will fail. Avoid high consequence terrain right now.

Confidence

-

Weather Forecast

Cloudy with sunny periods and the occasional flurry tomorrow. Nothing significant for new snow. A high temp of -14. Light west winds (20-30km/hr)

Avalanche Summary

A sz2.5 was noted near Burstall Pass. The actual timing is uncertain as it likely blew in quickly. It looked to be about 24hrs old. There were 2 separate fractures, indicating the step down mid slope.

Snowpack Summary

30cm of new snow on the road and 15cm up high. Sustained alpine winds and snow have combined to create new wind slabs in the alpine and treeline. These will be reactive in their own right, but the larger worry is the rapid loading of the deeper weak layers. The Jan 6th layer is now down almost a meter at treeline. This will put the Dec 15 layer down 120-140cm. Cornices have also seen some significant growth in the last 24hrs.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.