Northern New Mexico

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist as recent snow and wind continue to stress weak faceted layers on or near the ground. Human-triggered avalanches are likely and natural avalanches are possible today. You can trigger these large and destructive avalanches from below a slope or from a distance away.  Although it's possible to trigger a storm slab avalanche, especially at upper elevations,  expect any avalanche triggered to step down or break on or near the ground taking with it most of the season's snowpack and may not be survivable.  Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential as conditions will be changing quickly throughout the day.  Sticking to lower-angled wind-sheltered slopes without steep terrain above you will provide safer skiing and riding options. 

Yesterday's storm brought 6 - 10 inches of snow and 1.2" of SWE.  SW winds died down early this morning but were strong throughout the day yesterday into the overnight hours. This was the first in a series of three storms that will be impacting northern NM throughout the week. There's a chance of light snowfall today where we could pick up a couple of inches of snow. Winds will pick back up ahead of the next system that pushes into the area tonight through Tuesday, where we could pick up an additional 6 - 10 inches of snow.  There will be a brief lull Thursday with another system impacting us from Friday into Saturday.      

Most slopes in our mountains right now have a widespread layer of depth hoar and faceted weak layers on or near the ground that formed during the November dry periods.  In snowpits, these persistent weak layers have been found underneath an obvious rain crust that formed during an early December rain event and has been slow to heal in our still relatively shallow snowpack for this time of year.  During our last significant loading event at the beginning of January, we had several large natural avalanches and human-triggered slides on these weak layers. Avalanche mitigation teams have continued to get avalanches in these layers over the last week, which speaks to how dangerous of a setup we currently have.  Avoiding our persistent slab problem is a difficult task right now as most slopes harbor this poor snowpack structure of strong over weak. 

Continued snowfall and moderate to strong winds throughout the week will continue to load slopes pushing us closer to a tipping point of these buried faceted layers.  Incremental loading of slopes from smaller storms and strong winds can be difficult to pinpoint when exactly that time will be, but I'd imagine we're not that far away.  

Prior to this storm at upper elevations hard slabs formed from the numerous strong wind events we've had recently and cap deeper buried weak layers.  These hard slabs may be able to hold more weight than lower-elevation terrain, but these upper-elevation slopes are also where we've had the most amount of loading. However, it may just take you hitting a likely trigger point where the slab is thinner, like the margins of the slab or near rock outcroppings. Obvious signs of instability like loud audible collapses and shooting cracks may not be present at these upper elevations.  With a fresh coat of snow, identifying these areas will be difficult.  At lower elevations, snowpack depths are still less than a meter of snow and weak layers near the ground are a lot easier to impact.  Any avalanche triggered could be large, but the size of avalanches will increase the higher in elevation you go. 

It's not all bad news as hopefully with a deepening snowpack after this week of storms, we will start to see our persistent weak layers deeper down in the snowpack start to heal and strengthen. With another two storms still on tap in the coming day's, dangerous avalanche conditions will stick with us through the week.  If you're getting out in the mountains, stay safe as it may be some time before we can start to push out into steeper terrain as mother nature runs its course.