Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Shallow wind slabs will build Sunday night near ridgelines and in alpine terrain with 2-3" of redistributed snowfall. Near treeline, these slabs won't be very consequential except in steep, rocky terrain features or above terrain traps. If you move into alpine terrain and find deeper deposits over the crust, steer around wind-loaded slopes steeper than 35 degrees.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    At lower and mid elevations, you may find minimal new snow above a crust. However, as you approach ridgelines, note the depth of the snow and anticipate isolated fresh wind-loaded pillows in typical start zones. Steer around these deposits. If you move into more heavily wind-affected alpine terrain, you might find more snow above the crust and deposits large enough to take you for an unwanted ride on a unsupported, steep terrain features. SE and SW winds have been loading colder slopes on the northern half of the compass. In all cases, if you find more than 6" of snow above a crust, you can trigger an avalanche that may run quicker than you expect on that crust. You can also limit your risk by avoiding terrain above terrain traps (gullies or sudden flat areas) where even a small avalanche could bury you or run you into rocks and trees.

    Example: Wind scoured and loaded terrain.

Avalanche Discussion

An observation from Maggies at Hurricane Ridge on Sunday depicted early-season conditions. Limited signs of instability in the upper snowpack Sunday are expected to heal as temperatures cool heading into Monday.

4-5" of snow fell Friday night into Saturday, but Sunday has remained mostly dry in the Hurricane Ridge area. The recent snow was redistributed 3-8" deep by winds Friday night. Sun destabilized the snow to form shallow wet loose avalanches on Saturday. The fresh snow was badly needed to improve conditions at the tail end of a significant atmospheric river event in the Olympics that brought around 2" of water to Hurricane Ridge. Observers generally found improving stability following the rain event. You can read accounts here and here. You may have to contend with breakable crusts on sun-affected aspects on Sunday.

Keep in mind that other parts of the Olympics, especially along the southern, will have been hit much much harder by the recent rain event and low elevation travel is back to early season conditions with wide open streams that may be difficult to cross. An observation from Saturday provides some perspective on the low snow coverage following the Christmas and now mid-January atmospheric river events. The rain has taken a serious toll on the low-elevation snowpack and you can read about it for the Jefferson Ridge area. The southern and eastern Olympics likely may pick up substantially more snow through Saturday night than the northern portions of the range.

 If you're out in the snow (or slush), share your observations with us and your local backcountry community.

2022-2023 Forecast Schedule

NWAC will issue an avalanche forecast every Friday, Saturday and Sunday and every holiday mid-week day the Hurricane Ridge Road is open from December-early April.  We will issue Avalanche Watches or Warnings when conditions warrant.  New for this season, we will not update the non-holiday midweek discussion.  Our mountain weather forecasts will continue to cover the Olympics and are issued twice a day through late April.  If you have questions or feedback, please contact us at [email protected] and [email protected]. 

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