Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The Turnagain Pass snowpack is dangerous and unstable despite calm weather.  Tragically, a human-triggered avalanche on Saturday resulted in a fatality on Seattle Ridge. A person could trigger a large avalanche 2 to 3' deep on a layer of buried surface hoar today and for the foreseeable future. The human-triggered avalanches that are occurring often have many tracks already on the slope and many are being triggered from below, above, or from the side. The best way to stay clear of this problem and have a safe day is to avoid travelling on or below steep slopes.

*We could use your help spreading the word about the dangerous snowpack conditions at Turnagain Pass.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Avalanche Accident: We are deeply saddened to report that a snowmachiner passed away in an avalanche on the backside of Seattle Ridge Saturday at Turnagain Pass. This occurred in Warmup Bowl, also known as -1 Bowl.  Our preliminary report can be found here and we will provide a full report as soon as we are able. A media report can be found HERE.Our thoughts are with the family, friends, and all those involved at this incredibly difficult time.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Recent Avalanches: On Saturday, a large avalanche was triggered by a snowmachiner in Warmup Bowl on the backside of Seattle Ridge. The snowmachiner was caught, fully buried, and did not survive. See the video to the right for a description and read more info here. On Friday, there were 4 human-triggered avalanches reported on the backside of Seattle Ridge with no one being caught. 

    It has been 25 days since our danger rating has dropped below considerable in Turnagain Pass despite many days of calm weather. The problem layer of buried surface hoar that is 1 to 3' deep across forecast zones is unusually dangerous because it is allowing many tracks on a slope before releasing into a large avalanche. It is also difficult to assess where this might occur because our snowpits are giving us stable results with large human-triggered avalanches occurring within 50 to 100' of these stable results. We don't trust this snowpack and the only way to avoid this problem is to stick to low angle slopes with nothing steep above. 

    There is a noticable lack of avalanche activity on the non-motorized side of Turnagain Pass. With the exception of a few storm slabs on the south side of Cornbiscuit on March 18, March 13 was the last day natural and human-triggered avalanches were reported on the east side of the highway. These occurred in Lynx Creek on the south end of Turnagain Pass. On March 9 a large human-triggered avalanche occurred on Eddies. We don't know exactly why there are less avalanches occurring on the non-motorized side because the layer of buried surface hoar exists across the zone. It could be that there is less traffic on the slopes on the east side or something else, but either way we don't trust the snowpack anywhere in Turnagain Pass. The weight of a person could trigger one of these large and dangerous avalanches if we find the wrong spot.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Winds were strong enough on Saturday evening to make some wind slabs in the upper elevations. Although unlikely, there may be a stubborn one out there that could be triggered by a person in steep terrain. Wind slabs can feel hollow and if you poke them you will find stiff snow over softer snow. An old wind slab may let a person get way out onto a slope before releasing so watch for hazards below and be ready with an escape plan. The bigger concern with one of these small wind slabs is that it could trigger a larger persistent slab avalanche. East wind today is forecast to pick up later this afternoon and will likely create some fresh wind slabs that will become a problem tomorrow. 

    Other hazards today include cornices, which will continue to fail as we head into warm springtime conditions. Give cornices space on the ridgeline and watch for them from below. Glide cracks continue to creep downhill and can release into glide avalanches which take the entire season snowpack with them when they go. Avoid travelling underneath these unpredictable hazards whenever possible. 

Regions covered