Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions remain. Triggering a large slab avalanche 2 to 3 feet deep is still a main concern despite the quiet weather. These avalanches can be triggered remotely, release after tracks have already been on a slope, and catch multiple people. Smaller wind slab avalanches could also be triggered along with cornice falls. It's a heads up time in the mountains and we recommend a very conservative mindset for a safe day. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent Avalanches: Several human-triggered avalanches occurred on Sunday across the Turnagain forecast area. There was a skier triggered large slab on Eddies (pictured here) that was up to 3 feet deep. A snowmachiner was caught and carried in a slab avalanche in Lynx Creek. And, on the backside of Seattle Ridge, a skier triggered an avalanche, was caught, carried around 1,000' with an airbag deployment, and reportably is alright. The most recent avalanches we know of were on Monday when multiple reports of small wind slab avalanches were triggered that were around a foot deep.

    Avalanche conditions remain dangerous despite the quiet weather. After 2-3" of light snow fell to sea level overnight, partly cloudy skies are expected today with light winds. Combine this with more daylight hours and mountain travel should be easier. This is worrisome as an avalanche forecaster as we know there is a buried weak layer capable of producing large and dangerous avalanches. The most recent big avalanche we know of that released on this scary layer (Valentine's Day buried surface hoar) was on Sunday on Eddies. Mary went up to Eddies yesterday to look at this slab avalanche. It was triggered by a skier who was not caught. This was a much larger avalanche than originally thought with many rollovers releasing and debris running into the thick alders below. Although it was up to 3 feet deep, it appeared to be triggered from a thin scoured spot near the top of a rollover. See more photos and write up HERE.

    The main point is this type of avalanche (persistent slab avalanche) can still be triggered. This Valentine's Day weak layer is buried more deeply now (2-3' deep) after Sunday's foot-ish of snowfall, which means the potential size of avalanches are larger. It can also mean it's tougher to trigger and so those hidden thin spots end up being the places we do trigger these slabs. The weak layer has been found on all aspects above 1,500' and is the perfect setup for remote triggered avalanches. For example, a thin flat spot could be the trigger point for a slope nearby. This is a case where no warning sigs may be present, meaning no whumpfing or cracking in the snow around us; a tricky situation as all can seem just fine until it is not. Because this layer is so challenging to assess, the safest option is to make conservative decisions and stick to less consequential terrain away from steep overhead slopes. 

     

    (3/12/2025)

    Skier triggered avalanche that occurred on Sunday, March 9th. This was a large slide with debris making it into the alders far below the crown. Skier was not caught. 

    Photo: Mary Gianotti

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wind slab avalanches are still possible to trigger in the upper elevations from Sunday's new snow and wind. These slabs are 1-2' deep and could be sitting on weak snow, which makes them stay touchy for longer than typical. These are often found below ridgelines, on rollovers, and in wind loaded gullies. Look for shooting cracks and stiffer snow over softer snow.

    Loose Avalanches: If the sun warms the snow enough on south facing slopes, some shallow moist snow sluffs could be seen. 

    Cornices: With good weather for ridge walking, be sure to give cornices an extra wide berth. These can pull back further than expected. They also have the potential to trigger large slabs below. This exact thing happened near Carter Lake on Monday, photo below. 

    Glide avalanches: Keep in mind if you encounter glide cracks that they can release into avalanches at any time. If you cannot avoid being under them try to travel one at a time and as quickly as possible. 

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