East Slopes Central

If you get rained on in the afternoon, the potential for a small wet snow avalanche increases and at upper elevations near the Cascade Crest, you could encounter a very small slab of wind-transported snow. Be aware of hazards below you that a small avalanche could knock you over. Put bigger slab avalanches running on weak layers below in mind if you plan to travel to high elevations in more obscure places in the zone.

The forecast region continues its slow migration towards colder conditions. Expect a chillier but sunny morning on Wednesday at all elevations before a weak system moves in in the afternoon. This system might deliver a bout of rain at lower elevations. If you find yourself getting rained on, anticipate the snow getting wet and unstable anew. Ascend to more dry and refrozen snow for safer conditions.

Between Tuesday and Wednesday, areas near the Cascade Crest might have an inch or two of new snow. Combined with moderate to strong ridgeline wind forecasted, you could knock off a "wind skin" in complex and exposed terrain. This size of avalanche isn't particularly dangerous, but keeping an eye out for them will help you avoid being caught off guard. Slipping and falling from triggering one could result in being carried over hazards such as rocks and cliffs. Rippled and uneven snow surfaces that are softer and fresher than old surfaces will tell you that these tiny slabs could be lingering on downwind slopes.

We have decent confidence that after all this warmth and rain, weak layers such as the January Drought Layer (JDL) are no longer a significant issue for avalanches. But bear in mind that the nearby East North zone still harbors a more active persistent slab problem. On Sunday, NWAC Forecasters in that zone observed recent slab avalanches up to D3 in size that slid on the JDL. The avalanche that resulted in a fatality on February 28th ran on the JDL as well. Since snowpack structure doesn't necessarily abide by our human-made forecast zone boundary lines, be a little more suspicious of the snowpack further north or in far-out places in East Central. This layering could also be more obvious above the old rain/snow line, which is approximately 6600-7000 ft, but we lack on-the-ground data at these elevations. Factor in this uncertainty into your travel decisions. Here are three things you can do to reduce your risk:

1. Dig down into the snowpack to investigate the distribution of weak layers. Harder snow over softer, sugary snow is a red flag.
2. Choose more simple terrain. Think planar, short, and terrain trap free.
3. You're unlikely to see cracking or collapsing prior to dropping in. When in doubt, avoid slopes over 30 degrees.

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