Avalanche forecast

Seward and Lost Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Human-triggered avalanches on buried weak layers 3 to 6' deep in the alpine are unlikely but not impossible.  The most likely place to trigger a very large avalanche on a buried weak layer is from a thin spot in the snowpack, like near rocks or windswept features. You can avoid this issue by sticking to simple, low-angle slopes that are not connected to overhead avalanche paths. Below treeline, the wet storms last week have left icy crusts on the surface, which have added a lot of strength to the snowpack and made avalanches on buried weak layers very unlikely.  

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Join us Friday, Feb. 13, for the annual Snowball fundraiser! This event is a collaboration with the Alaska Avalanche School and is always a fun way to support two nonprofit organizations that provide avalanche information and education in our area. Silent auction, beverages, hors d'oeuvres, and music by Hope Social Club! Tickets and event info at alaskaavalanche.org

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent Avalanches: There were multiple avalanches observed near Seward and Snug Harbor during the wet and stormy weather last week. Over the weekend, no new avalanches were reported, but we have very limited field information since the stormy weather passed.

    The warm and wet storm last week, combined with temperatures dropping back below freezing over the weekend, has been a blessing in disguise, helping to accelerate the healing process for the weak layers in our snowpack. While this is not a great recipe for fun skiing and riding conditions at lower elevations, having the snowpack locked up with melt-freeze crusts is adding a lot of strength to the snowpack and hopefully spells the beginning of the end for the December facets.

    There is still the potential for triggering a very large avalanche on the December facets, which are now 3 to 6' deep, above the rain line from last week's storm (~2500 to 3000'). With very limited field information in the past week from Seward and Lost Lake, we have a lot of uncertainty about how reactive the buried weak layers are. But based on earlier field observations, the trend is towards this layer being buried very deeply and only possible to trigger in isolated thin spots in the snowpack. The best way to avoid this low likelihood but high-consequence avalanche problem is to stick to low-angle slopes and steer clear of terrain with steep slopes overhead.   

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