Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

New snow and strong winds will create dangerous avalanche conditions as slabs continue to build on a shallow, weak, faceted snowpack. The most dangerous slopes will be near and above treeline on northerly and east aspects, as well as cross-loaded terrain features. You can trigger an avalanche near the surface in wind-drifted snow, but the bigger concern is avalanches stepping down into deeper weak layers, creating a larger and more destructive avalanche. Sticking to more wind-sheltered and lower-angled terrain will provide safer riding options. 

If we see higher than forecasted snow totals, we may push to high avalanche danger above treeline.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–2.5

    New snow and strong winds will continue to build slabs that rest on top of a variety of weak facet layers and depth hoar that formed during multiple long drought periods. The added stress of more weight may be enough to tip the scales on some slopes that are loading rapidly from strong winds. These slabs could be 2 to 3 feet thick at upper elevations on northerly and east aspects.  The most likely weak layer these avalanches will fail on formed during the February dry period before Valentines Day. With a shallow and weak snowpack, even a peristent slab avalanche has the possibility of stepping down into deeper weak layers close to the ground.  It's possible to trigger an avalanche from the flats below or a distance away. 

    Stiffer slabs have formed on top of weak faceted layers and depth hoar. The most concerning layer formed during the dry period to start February. Depth hoar and other faceted layers exist closer the ground.

    (2/18/2026) Photo: Andy Bond

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Another round of snow and strong SW winds will continue to build wind slabs near and above treeline. With this low-density snow and strong winds, these slabs may extend further down the slope. Look for stiffening snow underfoot and round-shaped features on the surface that may feel hollow or drummy. Any wind-slab avalanche triggered has the potential to step down into deeper weak layers, leading to a larger and more dangerous avalanche.

    Strong winds have been drifting and loading slopes at upper elevations, especially on northerly and east aspects.  Cross-loaded terrain features like this on Sin Nombre are also likely places to find wind slabs.

    (2/19/2026) Photo: Charlie Harrison

Avalanche Discussion

The third and final storm of the week will bring another round of snow and strong winds to northern NM. Snow started falling early this morning and will continue into the early afternoon. Like the last systems, SW winds will be cranking again today with gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range. Today's storm looks to be the best in terms of snowfall totals as colder temperatures will bring higher snow ratios. Snow totals over the week are 12 to 18 inches with 1.2 to 1.45" of snow water equivalent (SWE).  None of these storms on their own have brought a ton of snow, but when added up along with strong winds over the last 3 days, some slopes have seen a significant amount of loading. 

Yesterday's little bit of visibility allowed us to get better eyes on upper elevation terrain. Outside of one natural avalanche in a cross-loaded gully near treeline, we've haven't reached the tipping point just yet. Moderate winds were continuing to drift snow onto the leewards sides of ridglines and cross-loaded terrain features at upper elevations. With more snow and wind today, we may finally break the camels back and see more natural avalanche activity.

The main concern is that 2 to 3 foot slabs have built on top of a shallow and weak snowpack. A faceted weak layer that formed during the early February dry period got buried during the Valentines Day storm. Some avalanches may start on this layer but could also gouge down into depth hoar near the ground taking with it most of the season's snowpack.  These avalanches would be the biggest of the season and easily big enough to injure or bury you. Below treeline, it's a little bit of a different story as cohesive slabs are harder to find. Winds over the last two days have been upsloping and stripping many areas in the woods but also depositing it on others. Steep open more exposed terrain, is where you're most likely to find cohessive slabs. The snowpack at these lower elevations is mainly completely faceted throughout and avalanches could fail closer to the ground.   

Skiing and riding conditions have greatly improved, but that's also come with increased avalanche danger. There have been 3 deadily accidents in the United States over the last couple of days. One in California and two in Utah.  These storms have created dangerous avalanche conditions throughout much of the west. Go in with a conservative mindset today, sticking to more wind-sheltered areas avoiding terrain with steep slopes above you. 

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