Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering a large, persistent slab avalanche has become unlikely, but not impossible. Small, wet snow avalanches may be possible this morning before temperatures cool off this afternoon. A storm will bring rain/snow to the mountains today with strong south winds.

Today's forecast is sponsored by Outer Impact

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Persistent weak layers formed during a dry spell in late December, were buried on New Year's Day, and are now 2-3 feet deep. Triggering a persistent slab avalanche 2-3 feet deep is unlikely today. This problem has become confined to shaded aspects above 7000'. You're most likely to trigger a persistent slab avalanche in steep, wind-loaded terrain above 7000'. The weather events of this past week have made triggering a large persistent slab avalanche difficult, but not impossible.

    This link to our observation page shows the breakdown of instability and recent avalanche activity from last week. We have not observed any avalanche activity since late last week.  All of these persistent slab avalanches failed above 7000' on N, NE, and E facing slopes.

Avalanche Discussion

Expect a day of transition in the mountains today. To recap the weather events of the past week: warm and wet and then warm and dry. Last Saturday and Sunday we saw rain levels reach upward of 8000'. Rain/snow levels dropped by Sunday and high pressure set in. Near or exceeding record high temperatures blanketed the region for three days this week. For three consecutive days, sites around 6500' recorded high temperatures of 48F. This spring-like weather pattern threw our snowpack into a rapid transition. Wet snow avalanches and melt-freeze cycles were the norm for several days. Snow levels below 6500' shrank to where they were in December. Today will begin warm and start to cool off throughout the day. Expect frozen snow surfaces not to thaw out much today. Precipitation is forecasted for the afternoon with cooler temperatures. Rain/snow levels will start around 6500' this afternoon before dropping closer to 5000' by tomorrow morning. 

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