Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A potent storm bringing extreme wind and heavy snow will create dangerous avalanche conditions on Tuesday. A heavy new load, in combination with a wet and saturated snowpack, will lead to multiple overlapping hazards that require a wide margin of safety. Consider giving the mountains another day to adjust to the multi-day wallop by avoiding steep open slopes and their runouts. 

The volcanoes could receive significantly more precipitation than elsewhere in the zone, which could lead to locally high avalanche danger. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    1-2ft of snow with extreme winds equals avalanches, natural and human-triggered. There could be multiple failure planes within the fresh snow, or all the new snow could slide on a surface crust that formed Sunday into Monday. While slabs could be plenty reactive in wind-sheltered terrain, the danger will be even higher on lee slopes where the wind drifts snow into deeper and harder slabs. Some of these could break above you, propagate widely across the terrain, and run long distances. Though usual locations near ridges and below cliff bands will certainly be suspect, expect to find reactive slabs well below the ridge into all elevation bands.

    Fresh avalanches, cracking, and collapsing are obvious signs of instability, and you can use hand pits, uptrack tests, and small test slopes to assess for bonding. Blowing snow is another obvious clue. That said, the best way to manage on Tuesday is to stay off of and out from under steep open slopes regardless of what you see and feel. Given the multitude of hazards and unrelenting storms, it isn't worth poking the bear. Lower-angle forested slopes could hold good riding conditions tomorrow! 

    (2/21/2025)

    Wide but shallow natural avalanches on Threeway Peak. 

    Photo: Andy Harrington

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Much of the snowpack is sopping wet and it will take time for the water to drain and/or re-freeze. Wet loose avalanches are most likely at lower elevations near the rain/snow line. Steer clear of steep slopes if you see moist snow on the surface, sink in past your boot tops into wet snow, or see rain falling on new snow.

    Wet slab avalanches are far less likely, but can't fully be ruled out. This would be an extremely unlikely, but extremely devastating avalanche. Upper and middle-elevation slopes on the northern half of the compass where the JDL and 1/10 may still be intact are where a wet slab is most likely to occur, and it would probably take a larger trigger like a wind or storm slab avalanche to cause a release. By avoiding the storm slab problem, you should also be well clear of this issue. 

    (2/23/2025)

    Wet loose avalanches were observed by NPS rangers near Paradise.

    Photo: NPS Rangers

Avalanche Discussion

Though the specifics are uncertain, the general picture is clear. Our snowpack is in an ongoing 12-round prize fight and the next storm is upon us. While we don’t have a full picture of the weekend’s avalanche cycle, we have received reports of widespread wet activity from Crystal, White Pass, and Mount Rainier. Monday, observers and ski patrollers found a widespread crust on the surface that could serve as a slick sliding surface for the incoming snow. 

1.5-2" of snow water equivalent with 55 mph winds would be enough to drive spicy avalanche conditions in the best of times, and this is anything but that for our snowpack. High wind speeds will drive elevated hazard even if you find lower amounts of snowfall locally, and a heavy new load on a stressed snowpack deserves caution. The weather doesn't look pleasant on Tuesday, so between that and the avalanche hazard, it could be a good day to take a breather and wait for the calm weather to come.

We'd love help documenting avalanches from last cycle. If you are out and about, please shoot some photos and submit an observation!

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