Avalanche forecast

Avalanche forecast

Payette Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Staying off slopes steeper than 35 degrees and far away from their runout is the only way to survive and navigate the dangerous avalanche conditions that exist: You are likely to trigger a 3-4-foot-deep persitent slab avalanche, yet there may be no warning signs until it's too late. 

Travel on slopes that are less than 35 degrees and far away from consequences like terrain traps: gullies, depressions, or creeks.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Our long cold sunny dry spell that was the theme for the latter part of January created what we are calling the January Drought Layer or JDL. Weak facets and surface hoar was buried and now sits under a 3-4 foot of slab of snow that could step down another foot to a weak layer of facets underneath a rain crust from 1/3. 

    Riders and Sliders have been triggering avalanches from a distance or remotely and numerous natural avalanches have been observed since Saturday. Check out the observations and photos they submitted 

    ***This problem not going away soon and is going to be your problem if you venture into steep terrain, especially shaded, or Northerly aspects where the weak layers are weakest. Our test pit results point to human triggering being likely to possible (ECTPV to ECTP15, PSTEND 19/100) with the most potential to trigger being on slopes tipped away from the Sun. This layer is getting deep and may be harder to trigger in some spots than others. Thin spots in the slab or weaker areas near tees and rock are likely trigger points and this may not happen until the second or third person gets on the slope.

    When this layer fails, it collapses suddenly and propagates a fracture fast and clean...you likely cannot outrun this or out smart this if you are in terrain steeper than 35 degrees.

    Choose simple terrain with a slope angle less than 35 degrees!

      State of the Snowpack at Palooza Basecamp & Eatery in Cascade Palooza Basecamp 112 N Main, Cascade, ID, United States

    State of the Snowpack at Palooza Basecamp & Eatery in Cascade February 6 - 6pm - 8pm Come find out what is going on in the snowpack with the PAC forecasters.  Just how bad/good is it our there?  Support the avalanche center and enjoy some great food!      

    Free

    Today's Forecast is sponsored by Brundage Mountain Resort. Thanks for supporting the PAC and your awesome bar graph on your snow report!

Avalanche Discussion

This is the time where the danger is great, and all jokes are gone and people need to be serious about how the choose terrain to travel on! We have had a good season so far and it is not worth the awesome powder to risk your life.

Slopes with an angle of less than 35 degrees is the only way to staying safe in the mountains with the current snowpack structure. Red flags or indications of avalanche danger may not be obvious, and may become less frequent as time moves on... Our persistent slab avalanche problem should keep you off of steep slopes as well as the potential to get a lot of dry loose snow moving with you or triggering a wind slab in leeward terrain.

Conservative terrain choices and travel protocols near avalanche terrain and abstaining from steep terrain for the near future is the only recipe for success.

Observations fill the gaps, and we have gotten a lot of great ones from people triggering or seeing avalanches since Saturday. Check them out and submit one of your own...Thanks!