Avalanche forecast

Ogden

Issued Feb 27, 2025valid to Feb 28, 2025Utah Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger

Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline

Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The danger for wet avalanches will rise to MODERATE today on all steep sunlit slopes. The danger for triggering a slab avalanche failing on a persistent weak layer is generally LOW in the Ogden area but trending more MODERATE toward the Bountiful Sessions area. Caution is still advised there on steep northwest to east facing slopes. Cornices will become increasingly tender in the heat over the next several days.

Avalanche problems

Loose Wet
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
2
This morning's temperatures are radically warmer than yesterday. With direct sun and continued warmth, you'll be able to trigger wet avalanches on steep sunlit terrain today. In continuously steep terrain or terrain with an abrupt transition or gulley, this wet snow will be enough to bury you. It'll also be enough to knock you off your feet in the no-fall-zone.

When you're seeing rollerballs and point release sluffs and the snow begins to feel punchy and unsupportable, head to cooler aspects or low angle terrain.
Persistent Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Unlikely
Size
2
The buried persistent weak layers are mostly dormant except along the southern end of the Ogden zone near the Bountiful Sessions area. Forecaster Trent Meisenheimer traveled into this zone yesterday and reports on the snowpack HERE. He also reports on a very close call in that zone from the weekend here. Rumors are of a partial burial but details are sketchy and we're keen on more information. Bottom Line, it may still be possible to trigger a slab avalanche 1-3 feet thick on steep northwest to east facing slopes.

Snow and Weather

Skies are clear with temperature inversions firmly in place. Ridgetop temperatures are well into the upper 20s to low 30s while basins and trailheads are in the teens. Winds are light from the northeast.

High pressure will dominate the weather pattern over the weekend while a lost and wayward storm wobbles about well to the south. Take heart, though, as in all things, there is hope on the horizon: a series of storms are set to impact the region on Monday.

If you play your cards right, you'll find windows of supportable semi-corn today on east, then south, then westerly aspects today. Polar aspects are wind damaged up high with a temperature crust from Sunday's greenhousing down low. The mid-elevations may offer the most consistent soft settled snow. It'll be a beautiful sunny day today with light winds from the northwest. Mountain temperatures will soar into the upper 30s up high, the mid to upper 40s down low.

Additional Info

Forecaster's Corner:

We are meaning-making machines. Always have been. We try to detect patterns to to reason our way through our next decisions. And it works pretty well when X equals Y but with our current snowpack, X might be Z. Check Trent's snow structure. He found stable snow, but mentions that right around the corner in the higher elevations, there was a very close call with a significant avalanche just a few days ago.

Bottom Line - there is a LOT of spatial variability in the snowpack. It's great to dig a snowpit, but don't make broad generalizations about what you find.

Supplementary Reading on decision making for this nice sunny weekend:

A Failure to Disagree - Daniel Kahneman and Gary Klein .... (on the use of intuition and reason for decision making)

Descartes' Error - Antonio Damasio ...(or anything else by him - on the use of emotion to support decision making)

Special Announcement

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Recent Activity

No reports of avalanche activity from the backcountry yesterday. Catch up on recent observations below.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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