Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Slab or loose snow avalanches are possible in an assortment of terrain, making it hard to completely rule out a steep slope from being dangerous. For a safer and more enjoyable day in the backcountry, steer around steep features and complex terrain to find fabulous powder on sheltered, low angle slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2

    In areas closer to the Cascade Crest that have received more than 1 foot of new snow and counting, you could trigger an avalanche that fails on weak layers below. Slabs could be particularly sensitive on rollovers or convexities or where the wind has made them deeper and denser. This type of avalanche can break in surprising ways, wider than expected, and from flat terrain. It is unlikely that you will trigger an avalanche on south and southwest aspects, but we lack the certainty to completely rule it out right now.

    Pay attention to the depth and cohesiveness of the surface snow. This will help you determine how much new snow there is as well as if the snow has settled or has been wind-affected. Cracking, collapsing (whumpfing), and recent slab avalanches are clear indicators that instability exists, but you might not see any before it's too late. Rippled, uneven snow surfaces and cornice development will point you toward wind-loaded slopes. Ultimately, persistent slab avalanches are tricky to manage; your best bet is to just stick to low-angle terrain free of overhead hazards.

    (2/3/2025)

    A skier triggered persistent slab avalanche near White Pass. This slide released over a 100ft wide and 2-3ft deep. WNW, 5600ft SS-ASu-D2-R2-O

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    All of this new and recent snow is very soft and dry, so it lacks bonding and cohesion where the sun isn't shining. Expect to see sluffs of dry snow anywhere throughout the zone, but this problem is more apparent closer to the Cascade Crest. Dry loose avalanches start at a point and entrain more snow as they move downhill and fan out. Although small, you could get knocked over and pushed over hazards such as rocks and cliffs. Be mindful of terrain traps below you and avoid this problem by steering around steep rollovers or gullies.

    (2/4/2025)

    A small skier triggered dry loose avalanche on a north aspect at 3400'. It ran 100 ft and entrained a lot of January Drought Layer (JDL) snow.

    Photo: Nate Hough-Snee

Avalanche Discussion

The zone will see another small input of snow Wednesday night, primarily on the western side of the zone, before we see some sunshine on Thursday. That means two important things regarding snowpack stability:

  • More snow always means added load over weak layers in the snowpack.
  • All of this super soft, dry powder might finally "slab up" in areas that get a bit warmer.

What do these things mean for you? Travel in the backcountry with a healthy dose of suspicion. With continued periods of dynamic weather and known buried weak layers comes uncertainty about how exactly the snowpack will behave. These weather inputs could finally tip the scales and make the persistent slab problem more apparent on a day like Thursday. You don't need to enter avalanche terrain to determine if the snowpack is unstable. However, persistent slab avalanche problems sometimes don't give you feedback until you've already committed to a steep slope. Give yourself wider safety margins and put together a conservative route plan for the day while we give the snowpack some time to adjust. There is plenty of amazing skiing and riding in "cold smoke" pow on low angle slopes!

With another shot of snow and wind, keep your wind slab goggles on. New and old wind slabs could fail on weak layers below and behave similarly to a persistent slab avalanche. Depending on the amount of new and recent snow, these avalanches will range from small to large. On Tuesday, backcountry travelers triggered a small wind slab avalanche in Icicle Creek, and a NWAC Forecaster traveling in the Salmon La Sac drainage noted wind transport during their tour.

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