Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

You can trigger large avalanches that could bury or kill you in the backcountry as snowfall and wind continues.  Avalanches are most likely to occur on steep slopes where wind drifted snow into thicker pillows, but enough snow fell in the last 48 hours to warrant exercising caution on all steep slopes. Steer around steep terrain on Tuesday, and stick to lower angle slopes as the snowpack adjusts to the added weight. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    At least three backcountry users triggered and were caught in small avalanches in the Baker backcountry over the weekend. This is a scary number of involvements. You might find two feet more of snow at mid to upper elevations since these avalanches occurred and moderate to strong winds, meaning we need to stay on our toes out there right now. The continued precipitation and wind will reduce visibility and make travel more challenging.  With all these factors, it's not a good time to get out on steep slopes, especially when you don't have a good visual. This much snow even on non wind-affected slopes could avalanche, either within the new snow or at the bottom of the new snow layer. You will probably find more reactive areas on wind-loaded slopes, where wind redistributed the snow into thicker deposits.

    Conditions vary throughout the zone, with an observer in the Canyon Creek area reporting wind scouring on ridgelines and only 4-6 inches of new snow at 5100ft. The one short steep slope he encountered was wind-loaded and fractured when he went out on it, indicating conditions in some areas may be more similar to conditions in the Baker backcountry a few days ago with smaller wind-loaded pockets still being the main culprit.  Even in lower elevation areas where snow hasn't yet fallen, there might be enough snow that falls by Tuesday to trigger avalanches at the upper reaches of below treeline elevations. 

    No matter where you travel on Tuesday, it's up to you to make decisions on where it is safe to go. Evaluate the snow constantly as you travel, and pay attention to obvious clues such as cracking , whumphing, and recent avalanches. These are clear indicators a steep slope is ready to slide.  Areas of thickly deposited new snow could use some adjusting, especially where wind loaded. Even locations with shallower new snow layers could still harbor reactive slabs that could take you for a ride and injure you, if not bury you. The likelihood of triggering large slabs in the backcountry right now, ones that are big enough to bury and kill you, is enough of a concern that your best option is to avoid traveling on slopes steeper than 35 degrees. If you notice any natural avalanches or find conditions warranting more caution, steer around the bottom of avalanche paths as well. 

     

     

    (3/13/2022)

    Shooting crack in wind-drifted snow- this is a clear indicator of unstable snow- stay off nearby steep slopes!

    Photo: Andrew Kiefer

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Sunday we saw several small (D1) and a few large(D2) human triggered and natural avalanches on all aspects, at elevations reaching to about 5000ft. Temperatures are finally cooling into Tuesday, and freezing levels will slowly drop to 3000ft by the afternoon. After a few days of hot pow and lower elevation rain, we will probably see wet snow and associated avalanche concerns limited to the lower elevations.

    Dropping snowlines means moist snow will accumulate in below treeline areas, and this is where we might see rollerballs and small wet loose avalanches. They will probably run in any new snow that falls, as the old snowpack is well adjusted to warm temperatures and rain already. Avalanches might easily be able to run on the old snow surface, however. If you find conditions where it's easy to kick off rollerballs or small avalanches, natural or not, steer around nearby steep slopes. 

    (3/13/2022)

    Shallow wet loose avalanches were easy to trigger Sunday in the Swift Creek drainage area of the Baker backcountry.

    Photo: Public Obs

Avalanche Discussion

The Baker area is expected to receive at least another 6 inches of snow Monday night, with about that much during the day as well. This is on top of the foot and a half which fell since Saturday. Wind is a major contributing factor with many of the reported avalanches. There is uncertainty about how continued snowfall and wind will strain the existing layers- maybe as temperatures cool the snowpack adjusts to the new load, or conditions could be more spicy than expected. There's a chance natural avalanches could occur, probably overnight and early morning as snowfall rates peak.  It's important that you evaluate conditions carefully and make decisions before making your way into avalanche terrain on Tuesday. 

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