Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

It will be easy to trigger a large wind slab avalanche above and near treeline today. Conservative travel and careful snowpack assessment are imperative. Backcountry travelers should avoid steep, pillowed, and wind-drifted terrain with convex rollovers and cornices. Wind slabs formed 12-48 hours ago may be hidden under fresh snow. Avalanche hazard is generally low below 10,500'. 

Aid KPAC's non-profit mission by entering our online Arizona Snowbowl Season Pass Raffle and supporting KPAC next Saturday (4/6/2024) on the Agassiz Lodge deck for the Mikee Linville Fundraiser

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Yesterday, a large wind slab avalanche was intentionally triggered on a NW aspect in Allison Clay Bowl. Wind slabs that formed yesterday will likely be on NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects. Winds may become northerly today, so anticipate reactive wind slabs above and near treeline on any aspect. Yesterday's soft wind slabs are likely getting firmer and more cohesive. Older wind slabs may be harder to distinguish as they are covered with new snow today. Danger can be decreased by avoiding wind-drifted snow, pillowed snow, convex rollovers, and cornices near avalanche starting-zones. Before committing to any slope, backcountry travelers should carefully evaluate the snowpack and terrain near steep bowls, ridgelines, and gullies. Any slope smoothed over by drifted snow should be considered very suspect and avoided. 

    Side view of a large D2.5 sized wind slab avalanche triggered (by a skier) yesterday on NW aspect of Allison Clay Bowl. Zoom in to see the debris center and left in the photo. The crown line is visible near the ridgeline on the right side of the photo. 

    March 31, 2024

Avalanche Discussion

March did not "go out like a lamb." With drifting snow and new accumulation, it went out like a dragon. Yesterday, between 2 AM and noon, the March 31 storm produced <1" of SWE below treeline, but it came in slightly upside down (denser snow above less dense snow). Late yesterday morning, KPAC observed that the new snow was not well bonded with the crusty snow below. Shooting cracks were easy to initiate in isolated areas, where wind-packed snow accumulated over slightly softer storm snow. At lunchtime, large amounts of drifting snow were observed pouring into Humphreys Cirque. Uncertainty increased through the morning, and KPAC changed the danger rating from moderate to considerable at 1:00 PM yesterday. 

Thirty minutes later, at 1:30 PM, a skier intentionally triggered a large wind slab avalanche on a northwest aspect in Allison Clay, near 11,600'. This was an R3D2.5 sized avalanche and could have buried or killed a person. Fortunately, no one was caught by the sliding snow. The experienced person (who triggered the avalanche) anticipated the problem and performed a ski cut on a less steep portion of the path/bowl. They successfully exited the edge of the soft slab avalanche before it caught them. The observation is here: https://kachinapeaks.org/Observations/#/view/observations/ec865cb1-004c-4f01-8cfc-1482797cf881

Soft wind slabs have had time to consolidate and may be more sensitive than yesterday. And to make things worse, new snow may make distinguishing the boundary of older wind slabs more difficult. Today, the name of the game will be very careful assessment and conservative decisions above and near treeline. 

Currently, the SNOTEL site in Snowslide Canyon is nearly 150% of the median snow water equivalent for this time of year. In addition, it's 13 days past the median date when the snowpack begins to decrease. This year, spring powder keeps the snowpack deep at higher elevations, and with this bonus comes increased avalanche danger. Keep a watchful eye, and don't let spring lull you into a false sense of security.

It's April! The snowpack is melting fast below 10000', especially on sunny slopes. Recent snowpits can be found at https://snowpilot.org/snowpits/query?field_loaction_tid=4

Come join Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center on Saturday, April 6th, at the Agassiz Lodge deck for the Mikee Linville Fundraiser!  All proceeds from this event go to our scholarship fund, which, to date, has resulted in over 29K of scholarship benefits!  For more information on how to get involved, visit kachinapeaks.org.  Many thanks to everyone who made our avalanche courses a success this season, and a big thank you to all our participants! KPAC is especially grateful to our generous community. Your support makes avalanche forecasting and education possible in Northern Arizona. 100% of KPAC's funding comes from fundraisers, donations, and grants - your contribution matters!

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