Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

A brief break in the weather should allow the snowpack to gain strength on Friday. You might still trigger an avalanche on very steep features, near convex rollovers, and in wind-loaded pockets.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    A bit of cooling and less rain should help reduce the chance of wet loose avalanches on Friday. However, the snowpack is a hot mess at mid and lower elevations. Unless there’s a new crust on the surface, you might trigger an avalanche in the wet snow. These “push-o-lanches” typically occur on very steep slopes, in unsupported terrain, and near exposed rocks. 

    Even though they can move slower and feel easier to manage, don’t let one of these slides push you over a cliff or into a creek.

    (1/4/2024)

    Example: Wet loose "push-o-lanches" in very steep rocky terrain. 

    Photo: Dallas Glass

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    These storm slabs should be gaining strength and becoming much harder to trigger. However, after a near-constant trickle of snow, fluctuating temperatures, and periods of stronger winds this week, there’s the potential for slabs to fail on any number of layers in the upper snowpack. Slides will most likely occur where firmer crusts exist within or at the base of the recent snow. Use hand pits and small slopes to see how the snow reacts to your weight. 

    Trigger points like convex rollovers, the base of cliffs, wind-loaded pillows, and unsupported slopes could still produce storm slab avalanches. Be careful on these features especially if the terrain ends in a tree fence, cliff, or creek.

    (1/22/2024)

    Example: Human-triggered slab on a steep unsupported slope. 

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

Thursday night and Friday will be a bit of the “calm before the storm.” This relative break in the weather should help the snowpack heal, but won’t be significant enough to fully lower the avalanche danger. 

This entire week we’ve been stuck on “repeat” with mild, wet weather. Each day, 3-6 inches of snow fell higher in the mountains as the rain line often hovered between 4000 and 5000ft. That means that sections of the mid and upper-elevation terrain stayed colder and drier. 

In nearby zones, rain often only impacted the upper few inches of snow. That means the bulk of the snowpack remained cold, dry, and layered. As we head into a very warm and wet period, that distinction could be significant. 

Friday night into Saturday, expect snow levels to rise rapidly and for conditions to change quickly. There’s still some uncertainty about how much rain will fall and when, but no matter the details, the mountains are in for a big transition.

Regions covered