Avalanche forecast

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Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You're most likely to trigger a large avalanche in steep rocky terrain with variable snow depths. On shady or colder upper elevation slopes, avoid areas where the wind formed stiff drifts or slabs near the snow surface. On sunny or lower elevation slopes, the chance for wet avalanches will increase as the day heats up, and the snow surface gets moist. The best way to play it safe today is by seeking out softer snow that's more sheltered from the wind and the sun.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Expect the chance of both natural and triggered wet slides to increase quickly today. Warm temperatures, calm winds, and clear skies will do quick work destabilizing the plentiful unconsolidated surface snow. These avalanches will primarily be found in steep solar slopes at mid and low elevations. Pay attention to the terrain above you—especially if there are rock outcrops where additional warming occurs—as these could happen naturally as the day warms up. 

    Although likely to be small, these slides can sweep you off your feet and push you into terrain traps. Look for rollerballs and pinwheels as obvious indicators that the surface snow is becoming moist, and that wet loose avalanches may follow. If the snow surface is getting sticky, head to sheltered, shady slopes.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Earlier this week, skiers triggered wind slab avalanches in the northern and southern Sawtooths while entering steep, exposed terrain. 

    Triggering one of these slabs remains possible today in upper and some middle elevation locations. Some slabs overlie crusts and/or thin layers of weak, faceted snow, where they could be easily triggered and break wider than expected. 

    • Look for shooting cracks, smooth dunes, textured snow surfaces, or cornices. 
    • Feel for changing surface conditions as you enter more wind-exposed terrain. Wind slabs will feel firmer than snow in sheltered locations.

    You can reduce your odds of triggering a wind slab by moving to lower-angle terrain sheltered from the wind.

Avalanche Discussion

The avalanche equation is changing rapidly this weekend, and snow doesn't like rapid change. The plentiful recent snowfall will be seeing a major warm-up over the next week, but today will mark the first day with temperatures expected to warm to above freezing at 9k'. With plentiful unconsolidated snow as ammunition for wet loose avalanches, expect surface snow to destabilize wherever direct sunlight lingers.

Don't let the potent cocktail of ideal seeming conditions (sunshine + trend towards stability + recent snowfall) lull you into skipping steps in your hazard assessment and travel techniques. Keep in mind that big terrain has big consequences for even the slightest mistakes, and that terrain traps below benign seeming slopes can amplify the outcome of small avalanches. If you choose to enter avalanche terrain, only expose one member of your party at a time and have a plan for if something unexpected happens.

Warm temperatures also accelerate the chances of cornices failing, and we've got some behemoths formed along many ridgelines throughout the forecast zone. Observers have begun to notice cracks near larger cornices where these beasts are peeling away from their roots. Failing cornices can also trigger much larger avalanches below, so give these whoppers a wide berth.

Regions covered