Avalanche forecast

Presidential Range

Mount Washington Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

You're most likely to trigger an avalanche where the wind formed drifts or stiffened the new snow surface, especially in steep terrain above 3000 feet. You can reduce your risk by seeking old firm snow surfaces. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    What and where is it: Watch for fresh wind slabs formed from the 2–3 inches of snow yesterday and another inch or two today. Strong west winds will scour exposed terrain and limit slab development at upper elevations and in wind exposed areas. The most likely place to find larger, more cohesive new slabs is wind-sheltered, middle-elevation, east-facing terrain - especially sheltered pockets, gullies, beneath rollovers, and other features that collect drifting snow.How can you recognize it: Active blowing snow and plumes of snow blowing at the ridgelines are signs that wind slabs are forming; slabs will be most reactive at this time. Pay attention to snow drifts accumulating and dig down to assess the interface with the old firm snow surface. Shooting cracks and drifts deeper than your boot tops are signs of new wind slabs.

     How can you manage it: Visually assess terrain before you commit to traveling through it. Look for active loading or recently formed wind slabs that will be smooth. While less likely, some slabs overlie crusts and/or layers of weak snow where they could be triggered and break larger and wider than expected.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2.5

    What and where is it: While unlikely, we can't write off triggering large avalanches in middle elevation terrain. Unfortunately, you probably won't receive any obvious signs of instability before triggering one of these lingering older slabs. We are most concerned with a layer of weak snow above the melt freeze crust formed on January 10th between 3000 and 5000 feet in elevation on easterly aspects.

    How can you recognize it: This avalanche problem won’t be identifiable from the snow surface. Probe to identify if the structure of a weak layer and a crust is present; you should be able to feel these hardness changes. If you find this structure, assess carefully before committing. 

    How can you manage it:  Treat this as a low probability, high consequence problem that can be difficult to manage because the weak layer may be stubborn and spatially variable. A larger avalanche in the new snow, or a human trigger in a thinner spot could trigger this layer. Manage the risk by choosing terrain where the consequences are low, and using careful snowpack assessments to guide your decisions.  

Avalanche Discussion

Looking ahead, avalanche danger should remain relatively steady through Saturday with only small inputs of new snow. Strong winds will remain the primary driver of changing conditions, continuing to transport available snow and build wind slabs on lee terrain features. The next meaningful increase in avalanche danger is tied to a storm moving up the East Coast, with impacts most likely from Sunday afternoon through Monday. Early guidance suggests the potential for 10 inches or more of snowfall, but totals will depend on the exact storm track. Cold Weather: In this kind of cold and wind, our operating margins shrink fast. Small problems that would be manageable on a normal day can escalate quickly into a serious situation -something as simple as a binding issue, fogged goggles, a navigation error, or an unplanned stop can become hard to resolve when you are losing heat and dexterity. If you venture out over the next few days, be disciplined about covering exposed skin, managing layers to regulate heat and moisture, and staying ahead of fueling and hydration. Travel conservatively, keep transitions efficient, and look out for your partners as well as yourself.Know the conditions, have a plan, and remember that your safety is your responsibility.OBSERVATIONS: Please consider submitting an observation on our website or in the new Avy phone app of what you are seeing in your travels. Submitting an observation hones your skills, informs other users, and improves our forecasts. 

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