Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Expect significant new snow as one storm exits and another arrives. Reduce your risk by choosing lower-angle slopes while the new snow settles. If you observe strong winds, blowing snow, or widespread avalanche activity, assume HIGH danger and avoid all avalanche terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Tuesday’s storm delivered heavy snowfall and strong winds, producing slabs that were very sensitive to human triggers. Slab reactivity usually decreases as the storm tapers and the snowpack settles. But recent avalanche and snowpack observations suggest that the new snow layers require more time to adjust. Increasing winds ahead of the next storm should drift snow and build new slabs in the afternoon.

    The greatest hazard will be in wind-loaded terrain, but slab and loose-snow instability also extends into wind-sheltered areas. Shooting cracks and recent avalanche activity are clear red flags to keep slope angles in check. On heavily wind-loaded slopes, the weak layer may be too deep to reliably assess with hand pits or other informal tests. At lower elevations, storm slabs are generally smaller and less influenced by wind, but remain reactive where snowfall rates are highest.

    Smaller-scale avalanche terrain might be manageable in some places earlier in the day, but avoid large, steep slopes. As winds increase, natural avalanches will again become more likely. Active wind loading is a clear signal to step back and avoid travel on or under big, steep slopes, or any place you suspect is building fresh slab.

    (1/6/2026)

    A crown of a human-triggered slab avalanche near Austin Pass.

    Photo: Irene Henninger

Avalanche Discussion

It was a wild and windy day across West North. Very strong winds shut down lifts at Mt. Baker Ski Area, and 8–20 inches of new snow fell across the zone. Precipitation totals at Heather Meadows were underreported due to strong winds, and actual wind speeds were likely higher than recorded at Pan Dome because of anemometer icing. The Marten Ridge SNOTEL, a reasonable proxy during southerly flow, reported nearly 1.5 inches of snow water equivalent in the last 24 hours.

Observers in the Baker Backcountry reported touchy, widely propagating slabs more than 12 inches deep. Failures occurred where denser four-finger snow rested on softer, fist-hard snow above the January 3 crust, with hand pits and small slope tests producing easy results at this interface. Instability was most pronounced in wind-loaded terrain but also extended into sheltered areas. Poor visibility limited observations in larger terrain.

The challenge for Wednesday's forecast is the contrast between declining natural avalanche activity and lingering sensitivity to human triggers. While the end of intense snowfall and wind loading should reduce the likelihood of widespread natural avalanches, conditions on Tuesday were reactive enough that storm and wind slabs are unlikely to become unreactive within 24 hours. Increasing winds and renewed snow transport ahead of the next storm further muddy the waters.

Regions covered