Avalanche forecast

Intermountain

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The Avalanche Hazard is Considerable at mid elevations and Moderate at upper elevations. Human triggered avalanches up to 3 feet in depth are most likely between 2500-3500 ft. Above 3500 ft very large human triggered avalanches are possible, but will be more stubborn to trigger. Wind slabs will be an additional concern today at high elevations and exposed areas.

It is unlikely to trigger an avalanche at low elevations where a stout rain crust exists up to around 2500 ft.

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Weak (faceted) snow is buried 2-3 ft in the middle elevations and 4-5 ft in the upper elevations. This layer has been found to be most sensitive between 2500-3500 ft and is most likely where you would trigger an avalanche.

    Above 3500 the weak snow at the ground is buried much deeper and has been showing that it is gaining strength. You are less likely to trigger an avalanche on this layer above 3500 ft but if you did  it would potentially be very large and high consequence. Temperatures have been above freezing at upper elevations for 5 days, this will cause the slab on top of the weak snow to consolidate and increase sensitivity.

    This layer of weak snow is buried deep and is difficult to assess in the field. When planning your ride or ski tour, note where the 2500-3500 ft band exists. If possible avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees within this elevation band. If you choose to cross and ski slopes steeper than 30 degrees use safe travel protocols such as traveling one at a time and spotting your partner.

    (1/21/2026)

    Natural avalanche activity within the mid elevation band

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    North winds kicked up overnight on Thompson Pass with gusts into the 40s. There is currently a lot of soft snow on the surface available for transport. A small wind slab avalanche could step down and cause the weak layers buried deeper in the snowpack to fail creating a much larger avalanche. Be heads up today in exposed locations and higher elevations where this problem will be more pronounced.

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours: None observed or reported

Forecast Discussion:

The snowpack is very complicated this year, and there is a high degree of spatial variability. Meaning these persistent weak layers exist in some locations but not all. Because of the high consequences of triggering a large avalanche on one of these layers we are taking a conservative mindset into the mountains with us. This is not a typical Thompson Pass snowpack and should be treated with respect.  

Here is a general summary of what's going on with the weak snow near the ground.

Below 2500 ft: Rain from last week's (1/15) storm consolidated and strengthened our snowpack.

2500 - 3500ft: The most sensitive elevation band is from the top of the (1/15) rain crust to around 3500 ft where an old faceted rain crust from December (12/1) is buried deep down in the snowpack. This has been the cause of a human triggered avalanche, artillery triggered avalanches, and very unstable pit results. In some locations this layer was destroyed by the most recent rain but it still exists in some locations. 

Above 3500 ft: 3-5 ft of snow is sitting on top of a wind hardened slab from December. Below the wind hardened snow, facets exist but have been showing that they are gaining strength. In more exposed areas that were stripped to the ground during the December drought the new snow is sitting directly on the ground creating a patchwork of pockets where the weak snow exists and does not exist. The snowpack is thinner and weaker in the Continental zone making this problem worse there. In exposed areas right around Thompson Pass that were stripped of snow in December the problem is more spotty. We currently have high uncertainty about the presence and sensitivity of this layer in the Maritime.

Deep persistent weak layers do not go away quickly and are really difficult to outsmart by making assessments in the field. A better strategy is to plan more conservative routes and use safe travel protocols to minimize your risk.

 

 For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary and Observations sections. 

Regions covered