Avalanche forecast

Provo

Issued Jan 3, 2026valid to Jan 4, 2026Utah Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger

Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline

Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on W-N-E facing slopes above 9500' where the wind has drifted new, dense snow into slabs. These avalanches have the potential to run far and fast on the slick crust below. Smaller wind slabs may prove effective triggers for deeper, destructive slides on a persistent weak layer up to 100 feet wide. Steep, rocky, wind-exposed northerly slopes are most suspect.

If the sun comes out for long periods or the temperatures rise more than forecast today, expect the possibility of being able to move small panels of wet new snow.

Avalanche problems

Persistent Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Unlikely
Size
2
Due to the supportability of the Christmas Eve Rain Crust (CERC) in the majority of terrain, it's unlikely that you can trigger a slab avalanche on the persistent weak layer. However, if you did, it has the potential to be a large, destructive, and potentially fatal avalanche.

Today, we bumped the likelihood of the PWL down to unlikely. This means that slabs running on weak snow below the CERC can range from unreactive to stubborn, however we want to stress that this does NOT mean that these are entirely off the menu if you head to just the wrong spot. The PWL is largely dependent on the supportability of the CERC above it. In higher, wind-exposed, W-N-E terrain where the snowpack may be thinner, the CERC may prove less supportable. These areas are most suspect for triggering a large slide. Some mid-elevation slopes fit this bill as well.
Wind Slabs
N
NE
E
SE
S
SW
W
NW
Alpine
Treeline
Below treeline
Likelihood
Possible
Size
1
The most recent storm pulse laid down more than a foot of new dense, and wet snow in favored areas. Sustained winds out of the SW drifted this snow into fresh slabs and pillows at upper and exposed mid-elevations that face W-N-E. In some areas, you'll be able to find pockets of wind-drifted snow close to 2 feet deep that will be reactive to your body weight, with the potential to run fast and far on the slick Christmas Eve Rain Crust. Cracking along the surface is a sign you've likely found a slab.

These slides will be pockety, found mostly near ridgeline in catchment zones like the entry to tighter terrain. This type of terrain is also where these types of smaller slides can be the most consequential. If the sun comes for long periods or the temperatures rise more than forecast today, expect the possibility of being able to move small panels of wet new snow.

There remains an unlikely possibility for one of these shallower slides to step down to a more destructive slab avalanche running on weak snow near the ground—more info on that below.

Recent Activity

Yesterday, there were no new avalanche reports from the backcountry. Provo has been generally quiet the last few days.

In the Central Cottonwoods, Ski patrol teams reported a wet snow surface at the lower elevations of their mountains, allowing for easy push avalanches, or snow pushing on the supportable crust, along with one report of an explosive-triggered soft slab. Observations also noted sensitive wind-drifted snow at upper elevation ridgelines.

Find all the Provo observations HERE.

Snow and Weather

The past two days, a warm storm that rolled in with sustained moderate winds from the SW dropped new snow above snow lines that exceeded 8000' at times. Low snow but high water totals paint the picture pretty well. Mid-Mountain at Sundance received upwards of 4.3 inches of H2O, but only 8.7 inches of snow total for the season.

Today, we enjoy a break in the active weather. Under broken skies, most weather stations are in the high 20s F this morning, with forecast highs for the day reaching only into the low 30s. Patchy cloud cover is expected to continue throughout the day, with light to moderate SW winds increasing gradually into the late afternoon.

Late tonight into tomorrow, a decaying atmospheric river makes its way toward us on southwest flow. Snowfall rates will increase Sunday into Monday—check back tomorrow for the ever-evolving forecast snow totals.

General Announcements

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Observations and Avalanches

Backcountry Emergency Procedures