Avalanche forecast

Blues

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Big changes to the snowpack in the form of significant warming suggest a step back in terrain selection.  A rider could likely trigger wet loose avalanches on sunny slopes by mid-day through this evening on steep terrain greater than 35 degrees.  It remains possible to trigger a deeper avalanche up to a foot deep on buried surface hoar on shady slopes near and above treeline.  Avoid riding in steep terrain or above terrain traps as the sun and warm temperatures heat the snow surface. 

It is with profound sadness that we report an avalanche fatality that occurred on 3/6 in the Northern Elkhorns. Our backcountry community is small and we understand the tremendous grief many are experiencing. Our thoughts and prayers go out to all affected. An accident report will be forthcoming. A preliminary report can be found below in the forecast discussion.

This forecast is sponsored by  Wallowa County Search and Rescue

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    It will be likely to trigger wet loose avalanches today on aspects that are seeing direct sunlight and with temperatures rising into the low 50's.    The lack of a good freeze last night at lower and mid elevations will amplify this problem sooner than what you might be used to.  When you step off your machine or are on your skis and you sink into wet snow up to the top of your boot, it's time to scoot!   The classic precursor signs of wet loose avalanches are roller balls and pinwheels entraining surface snow as it is warmed by the sun and warm temperatures, or as you ski or ride over steep terrain.  Wet Loose avalanches may become large today and entrain more snow than you might expect.  These avalanches could easily knock you off your feet, and push you over unforgiving terrain or stack debris into terrain traps such as gullies/creek drainages.   Avoid slopes greater than 35 degrees in steepness during the heat of the day.  

    Pinwheels

    Photo: Nick Burks

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    On Wednesday, forecaster Michael Hatch traveled to Spout Springs and found a thin layer of buried surface hoar down 8" at the new/old snow interface on a north-facing slope near 5200' in elevation. Surface hoar is notorious for being a persistent and reactive weak layer when buried.  If you collapse this weak layer in a shallower area on the slope (say around rocky terrain or wind-scoured areas) or roll over a steep convexity, the propagating fracture could trigger a large and destructive avalanche.  Avoid potential trigger points and steep (>35 degrees) convex rollovers, especially near treeline and mid-slope. Surface hoar forms in more open and protected terrain with little sun, so you'll find in mostly on shady slopes NW-N-NE. There is a lot of spatial variability of this layer across the slope. It is hard to see in the snowpack as it is a very thin layer. When in doubt, do snowpack tests, and better yet, choose lower-angle terrain to recreate in. You can always choose to avoid avalanche terrain altogether, and at the very least, ride on aspects where this problem is less likely to exist. 

     

     

    (3/13/2024)

    This is the type of terrain where you could trigger the buried persistent weak layer in the Blues. It is a north-facing slope where the wind has been depositing snow and it also happens to be a convex rollover where the slope steepens considerably and is under added stress. 

    Photo: Wallowa Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

No danger rating has been issued for the lowest elevation band in the Blues (3000'-4000') due to the lack of snow in that zone. If we receive significant low elevation snow we will begin forecasting for that zone again.

Warming Temperatures = Increasing Instability

The avalanche danger will rise to Considerable today with warming temperatures and plenty of input from the sun.  Through the weekend, we can expect to see poor overnight freezing temperatures and temperatures climbing into the low 50's.   Solar aspects (SE-S-SW) at most elevations in the Blues will be taking the bulk of the heat which will cause the snow to melt, and that melting will penetrate the snowpack and create instability. A big thing to watch for is if the overnight low temperatures do not get below, or much below, freezing (32 degrees) for several nights in a row. If this happens, one can expect the snowpack to lose strength quickly and become unstable. Pay attention to the Snotel sites in the Blues, namely High Ridge and Milkshakes. If it doesn't freeze at these locations, then you should avoid steep sunny slopes >35 degrees by early afternoon. 

As you push onto shadier aspects in search of the increasingly elusive cold snow, be mindful of areas that may harbor persistent weak layers such as the Buried Surface Hoar that has been found 8-12" below the surface.  Evaluate the snow under your feet before committing to slopes greater than 30 degrees.  If you have uncertainty in the snowpack, terrain is the answer.  Seek out terrain less than 30 degrees. 

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Avalanche Fatality on Gunsight Mountain in the Elkhorn Mountains on 3/6/24

At approximately 4:30 pm on Wednesday, March 6th, an avalanche accident occurred on the north side of Gunsight Mountain (8342′) in the Elkhorn Mountains near Anthony Lakes.  

We are deeply saddened to announce that Nick Burks passed away due to trauma after triggering an avalanche while backcountry skiing with a friend.  Nick was a highly respected snow safety professional and worked for the Wallowa Avalanche Center as an educator and forecaster.  A full investigation and report will be forthcoming in the coming days.  Our backcountry community is small and we understand the tremendous grief many are experiencing. Our thoughts and prayers go out to all affected.

A Celebration of Life for Nick Burks

The first celebration of life for Nick Burks will be held this Saturday, March 16 at Terminal Gravity Brewing in Enterprise, OR at 1 PM.  Please bring photos, stories, poems, and songs to share as we’ll have access to the outdoor stage.  Anyone who knew or was impacted by Nick is welcome to attend.  Another celebration is in the works for later this month in Parkdale, OR.  If you have any questions please email [email protected].

 

 

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