Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Strong winds today will help reduce the threat of wet avalanches except in sunbaked terrain sheltered from the wind. Use caution in steep terrain if the snowsurface gets wet and mushy, as illustrated in this video.   Although the odds of triggering a dangerous slab avalanche are decreasing, there is lingering potential on higher elevation northerly aspects, exemplified by Wednesday's close call on Whetstone.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    Snow and wind-loading last week formed a new generation of slabs up to several feet thick over small-grained facets in the upper snowpack.  Numerous large slab avalanches failed on this layer during last week's loading period.  After this week's warmup, the problem is generally confined to northerly aspects near and above treeline.  You can reduce your risk by avoiding steep, previously wind-loaded slopes holding a dry snowpack.  Persistent slab avalanches are unlikely on slopes with thick surface crusts and at low elevations.

    On unusually shallow slopes, most commonly in the Southeast Mountains, there is still a small potential to trigger a destructive avalanche that breaks on deeper weak layers. The most concerning structures are on northerly aspects near and above treeline where snow depths are less than 170 cm, or where large cornices fall onto slopes.  

    A large human-triggered persistent slab on Whetstone on Wednesday.  

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Warming temperatures and solar radiation will wet snow surfaces first on east, then south, then west-facing terrain, increasing the threat of wet avalanches.  Most slides will start as shallow point releases, but some could entrain dangerous amounts of wet snow as the snowpack becomes more saturated later in the day.  There is isolated potential for wet slab releases as well.  Travel in steep terrain before surface crusts thaw into pushy wet snow.  Move to colder aspects or lower slope angles to avoid the problem after it develops.  

    A large wet loose avalanche entrained dangerous amounts of wet snow on its way down the south face of Teocalli.  

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche observations from this week's warm-up include many natural D1 to D2 wet loose avalanches, skewed towards the smaller end, along with a couple of D2 slabs from warming-related releases or cornice falls.  A skier triggered a large persistent slab on a north-facing slope on Whetstone as well.  

Last night's partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures will contribute to a weaker refreeze than previous nights.  However, increasing southerly winds and some cloud cover today are expected to reduce wet avalanche activity compared to the last two days, especially at higher elevations.   Monitor the amount of surface thaw and choose mellower terrain once you start sinking past your ankles in wet snow.  Slopes that receive prolonged solar and are sheltered from today's winds are most suspect for triggering a wet avalanche as the day warms up. 

On northerly aspects near and above treeline, the snowpack remains dry with lingering persistent slab issues.  The most active weak layer is 2 to 3 feet deep: small-grained facets or faceted crusts buried on March 23rd.  The likelihood of triggering an avalanche on these layers is gradually declining as the weak layer adjusts and gains strength after last week's loading period.  Given the large potential size, careful terrain selection or diligent snowpack assessments are recommended before riding on slopes steeper than about 35 degrees.  Look through our gallery of recent large avalanche activity to understand the most problematic terrain. 

Tomorrow's winterlike weather will eliminate wet avalanche concerns while developing fresh wind slabs in the new and drifted snow.  

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