Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Expect some clouds and slightly cooler temperatures on Monday.  While conditions are generally safe, keep an eye out for wet avalanches on sun-exposed slopes and at low elevations. If you are sinking deeply into wet snow, it might be time to move to lower-angle or shadier terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Wet loose avalanche hazard will depend on how the weather plays out tomorrow. Expect a balancing act between the potential for ridgeline winds and clouds keeping the surfaces cool and sunshine and warm air softening and melting snow surfaces. Check how much the snow surfaces froze overnight.

    There is significant variability throughout the terrain, so take time to observe the snow surfaces. If you see pinwheels or rollerballs, snow feels wet and heavy, or test slopes show the propensity for wet snow to move downhill, you might be able to trigger a wet loose avalanche. Steep rocks and cliffs in the sun are prime locations for wet loose avalanches to start, be aware of overhead hazards and terrain traps that can increase the consequences of being caught in even a small avalanche.

    In some locations, weak faceted snow exists above the Late January Crust. There is uncertainty on how this layer will react to warming temperatures. But it is possible that a wet loose avalanche could trigger a deeper and surprisingly large slab avalanche.  If you're traveling in the northern portion of the zone, near Holden or Lake Chelan, check out the East North zone forecast where more dangerous persistent slab conditions exist. 

    (2/6/2022)

    If you find wet, sticky snow like this while you are traveling, you may be able to trigger a wet loose avalanche in steep terrain.

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

Very warm temperatures were recorded on Monday, with many weather stations recording temperatures in the mid to high 40's. Low elevations and sunny slopes have seen significant melting. From Jan 30- Feb 2, storms deposited 10-16 inches of snow over various surfaces, including weak faceted snow and strong melt-freeze crusts. Strong ridgeline winds have redistributed much of that new snow into dense slabs, scoured west aspects, and created stiff wind-board surfaces. We enjoyed better travel conditions for a few days, but unfortunately, the warm temperatures have formed melt-freeze crusts on the snow surface. As a result, travel conditions are likely a challenging combination of thick icy crusts, breakable crusts, or heavy wet snow. 

On sheltered areas on north and east aspects, facets over a crust have been observed at mid-elevations beneath the storm snow from 1/30 - 2/1. This layer seems inconsistent in distribution, and stability tests have shown variable results. There is uncertainty about the distribution and extent of this layer, but it is only 1-2ft deep, so you can dig down to identify these layers quickly as you move through the terrain. If you find weak, sugary snow over firm melt-freeze crust under a cohesive slab, you could trigger surprising avalanches on steep slopes.

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