Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Mostly sunny skies and temperatures well above freezing will lead to Wet Loose avalanches.  These avalanches are most likely and will be the largest on South slopes which will be the warmest, and also have the most soft snow due to previous windloading.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Heat from the sun and temperatures climbing above freezing lead to melting of the surface snow.  As the proportion of liquid water to ice crystals increases the snow can no longer "cling" to the slope and a Wet loose avalanche occurrs.  This type of avalanche is most prevalent on steep South slopes which receive the most heat from the sun.  It is unlikely that this melting will extend much into the rain crust that exists in our upper snowpack, so any avalanches will be limited to the soft surface snow.  On many aspects this snow is only a few inches deep, but on some wind loaded South slopes there is 10 inches to a foot of snow overlaying the crust.  These are the slopes I would be careful on.

Avalanche Discussion

On Sunday, one of our observers saw shooting cracks and felt a collapse on a SouthWest slope on Broken Top.  Saturday's wind slabs seem to be increasingly stubborn, but still reactive.  I am optimistic that after a warm clear day on Sunday they will continue in that direction.  I am concerned that Saturday's  Wind Slab problem could become Monday's Wet avalanche problem as temperatures will reach above freezing and the forecast is for mostly sunny skies.  Take the extra time to evaluate slopes that have increased deposition from previous windloading, especially as the day heats up.

Regions covered