Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The chance of triggering a wet loose avalanche will increase today as the strong April sun begins to rapidly melt the snow surface.  Be especially aware of this problem on south facing slopes that move into the sun early, and continue to see sunshine throughout the day.  Move away from any steep slope that has wet mushy snow where you are sinking into the snowpack.  

The temperatures are on the rise and the new snow is starting to melt out.  Rocks and logs are exposed, and in some cases, buried just beneath the snow surface.  Move cautiously through terrain with thin snowpack.

Thank you to everyone who attended the Mikee Linville Scholarship Fundraiser on Saturday!  We appreciate your support, and your contributions helped make the event a great success!!  

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Skies are clear, the sun is out and temperatures are on the rise.  The spring time feel isn't just ethereal, it's also affecting the snowpack. Wet loose avalanches triggered by a skier or rider are possible on steep solar aspects, especially below and near treeline, where temperatures are expected to rise into the mid and upper forties today.  These sunny slopes could soften quickly and the weight of a human could trigger one of these slides.  Be careful of this possibility where terrain could complicate a fall, and look for signs of instability such as slushy, wet surface snow, and roller balls.  

    This was a small wet loose avalanche on an east aspect in the Humphreys Cirque from last year's spring cycle.  Expect similar activity this week.

Avalanche Discussion

The snowpack is once again transitioning as the colder and snowier weather of last week gives way to spring weather.  A ridge of high pressure is moving into the region and the warming temperatures will increase the chances of snow bound recreationists triggering a wet loose avalanche.  As temperatures increase and the snowpack warms throughout the week, the likelihood of wet loose avalanches will grow.  These avalanches will be small in size, but could knock a skier or rider from their feet and send them over consequential terrain features, such as cliffs or rocks.  Be aware of your timing and move away from slopes that feel soft, wet and mushy.  

Temperatures are still freezing overnight and any sun exposed snow could feel thick and heavy.  It will take a few days before any melt-freeze corn cycle begins to set in.  Look for these later in the week, possibly as early as Thursday or Friday.

The chances of a wind slab avalanche are decreasing, but this threat is not quite out the door.  Yesterday the wind was light, and the conditions felt like spring, if not summer, with the strong April sun dominating the Peaks.  Overnight, high elevation winds produced around 200 miles of wind.  Not quite enough to build fresh slabs, but they could have added additional layers to existing wind deposited features.  Continue to check for signs of instability such as cracking or shearing, and avoid large wind mounded areas in steep terrain.

Layers of graupel from Friday are present in some layers of the snowpack.  If buried by a slab of snow, this graupel layer could still be a failure point, especially on colder north facing slopes.  

Yesterday there were no reports of natural or human triggered avalanches.  For more information on snowpack and conditions, check out the observations page.  A huge thanks to those who sent in observations during last week's storm cycle.

Continue to use smart travel protocols.  Provide adequate spacing, ski or ride one at a time, and keep eyes on those moving through avalanche terrain.

Access and egress will continue to be problematic.  Rocks and logs were an issue in many locations before the storm and may be hiding underneath the recent snow.  Skinning conditions are improved, but when returning to lower elevations exposed, partially and fully buried obstacles will be a hazard. 

Thanks again to everyone who attended the Mikee Linville scholarship fundraiser on Saturday!  Your generosity helps make avalanche education more accessible to dozens of individuals!

If you get out, please submit your observations or email us at [email protected].  

KPAC has documented evidence of several avalanches this season - Avalanche Database.  

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