Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Today, human triggered avalanches are likely on wind loaded slopes. New snow and wind have caused avalanche danger to remain considerable today. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist, especially at higher elevations. Yesterday, a large avalanche and point releases were triggered under the weight of a skier. For less avalanche hazard, seek protected slopes less than 30° steep.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Predominant southwest winds have created reactive wind slabs on leeward slopes and terrain features over the last few days. However, strong winds shifted to the west on Friday afternoon, loading northeast and east slopes. West winds are forecasted to continue for the next several days and will redistribute the snow. Anticipate wind slab avalanches to be likely for the foreseeable future with continued winds. Avoid wind-loaded, rounded, pillowed, rippled, or corniced slopes, as these may have sensitive wind slabs.

    Yesterday, a large R2-D2 avalanche was triggered while a party was assessing a north facing slope near the Humpreys Trail Saddle. The avalanche propagated while an individual was ski-cutting while being belayed by a partner. The avalanche crown was 6-24" and was ~200 feet wide.  Additionally, a smaller wind slab avalanche was reported on a steep west aspect near treeline (See Observations).

    (3/24/2023) Wind slab avalanche on north aspect near Humphreys Trail Saddle at ~11,800'. Crown was 6-24" and ~200' in total (red arrows). Crown line extended behind (west) where the image was taken.

Avalanche Discussion

There is still a lot of uncertainty after the last storm; however, Friday, the snowpack near and above the treeline was reactive in wind-loaded areas. In addition to the wind slab issue, backcountry travelers should be aware that several crusts and facet layers were just buried by the last storm, which had 5-7" of snow water equivalent, and could create reactive layers further down in the snowpack. If an avalanche fails on these layers, it could be much larger than you may expect and could be unsurviveable. For the next 24-48 hours, be hyper-aware of these avalanche problems and pick terrain accordingly.

Several folks have mentioned that this is the best coverage they have ever seen in 25-45 years of touring around Flagstaff. It's been an amazing year with no reported backcountry injuries or burials. Backcountry touring is an amazing thing, but it is serious business. Stay diligent and aware. Remember to use good avalanche travel technique within your group, only exposing one person at a time to avalanche terrain. But also remember that backcountry usage has increased on the Peaks and other groups could be above or below you. With this, it is especially important to consider other group's possible travel plans while in complex and steep terrain.

SupportIf every person that reads our forecast page donated just $10/year, then KPAC would be fully funded and could grow, providing daily forecast updates all season. https://kachinapeaks.org/Support

Regions covered