Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Snow, rain, and wind will intensify today as another atmospheric river event comes into the Mount Shasta region. Up to two feet of new snow is expected on the upper mountain by tomorrow morning. Avalanche danger will rise through the day as more weight is added to our snowpack. Human triggered avalanches are likely above treeline. Near and below treeline, human triggered avalanches remain possible. Expect heavy and wet conditions at lower elevations. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Moderate to strong southwest winds continue to transport available snow onto north and east aspects. Cross loading is possible on northwest through southeast aspects. Yesterday's observations showed active transporting, growing cornices, and hard wind slab on ridges. With winds expected to increase today, this problem will become more sensitive. Above treeline, extreme winds could load snow onto unusual terrain.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    As of 5am this morning, this is a low likelihood problem. However, with 14 to 25 inches of new snow expected in the next 24 hours, this problem will be on the rise later in the day. By tomorrow morning, this problem could become quite sensitive and hazardous. While in the backcountry, look for signs of instability such as recent avalanche activity, shooting cracks, or collapsing. This problem could be found anywhere the new snow has fallen.

Avalanche Discussion

Today is a transition day for our snowpack. We will shift from the more recent low-density snow, to heavy, wet snow associated with atmospheric river conditions. In the world of snow safety and avalanches, we consider atmospheric river events to be more unusual compared to normal storm systems. On that note, whenever we consider something to be "unusual", it's probably a good idea to slow down, step back, and reassess. With 14 to 25 inches of new snow expected by tomorrow morning, there is some uncertainty to how our snowpack will adjust to the heavy load. Lower elevations are likely to see more rain (snow level 5,900 feet this evening), while higher elevations will receive high-density snow. Proceed with caution today. Above treeline, expect gale force winds, heavy snow, and poor visibility. If you choose to venture above treeline, limit your exposure to avalanche terrain, especially leeward aspects that could be holding wind loaded snow. 

Road/Recreation Status:

  • Everitt Memorial Highway is CLOSED
  • Castle Lake road is CLOSED
  • Pilgrim Creek Snowmobile Park - OPEN
  • Deer Mountain Snowmobile Park - OPEN
  • MS Ski Park/Nordic Center - OPEN

Regions covered